The United States expanded its bombing campaign against Iran on July 24, 2026, striking targets as far north as the Caspian Sea, while Iran simultaneously launched missile and drone attacks against US bases in Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait. The escalation ended any pretense of restraint on either side and pulled the conflict deeper into a multi-front confrontation spanning the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, and the Levant. (The Guardian)

President Donald Trump threatened "major military punishment" for Iran and its Houthi allies over Red Sea attacks, and told Axios he was considering relaunching major combat against Iran, saying "They haven't received enough pain yet." He also warned China and Russia against selling weapons to Iran on July 24, while simultaneously stating he believed assurances from Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin that they were not doing so. Iran confirmed it was in consultations with both Beijing and Moscow. (The Guardian)

The latest wave of strikes under Operation Epic Fury, the US military's ongoing bombing campaign against Iran, came on the heels of a 13th consecutive night of precision strikes on Iranian military targets concluded July 23. CENTCOM had completed its ninth consecutive evening of strikes on July 19, followed by additional rounds on July 20, 22, and 23. The tempo has been unrelenting since a brief ceasefire collapsed on July 13, when Trump ordered the reinstatement of a naval blockade. (CENTCOM; The New York Times)

Iran's military warned civilians across the region to stay 500 meters away from locations where US troops were present, an unusual advisory that signaled the scope of its retaliatory targeting. Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said preserving Iran's interests in the Strait of Hormuz is among their principles and that they are "neither intimidated by threats nor will yield to pressure." Araghchi met Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov in Kyrgyzstan on July 24. (The Guardian)

The diplomatic track, such as it was, has fractured. The New York Times reported that Tehran rejected a US ceasefire proposal delivered by Iraqi prime minister Ali al-Zaidi, under the headline "Iran Rejects U.S. Cease-Fire Deal Presented by Iraqi Leader." Iraq disputed that account. Secretary of State Marco Rubio claimed on July 23 that Iran was "begging for a ceasefire." The contradiction between these positions, and the use of Baghdad as an intermediary, reflects the limited leverage available to regional actors caught between two combatants with maximalist postures. Al Jazeera noted in a July 15 opinion piece that Iraq's prime minister "carries the title, but not the power." (The Guardian; The New York Times; Al Jazeera)

On the maritime front, the Houthis claimed a naval blockade on Saudi Arabian ports and ships using the Bab el-Mandeb strait. They struck two Saudi tankers there on July 23. The impact on shipping was immediate: half of the 18 ships exiting Bab el-Mandeb that day were carrying crude oil, including two Chinese supertankers. Shipping insurance costs through the southern Red Sea doubled for some companies. The number of tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz fell to just one, the lowest since May 7. Oil prices rose 7% to more than $100 per barrel, the first time above that threshold since May. Trump launched additional strikes against the Houthis in Yemen on July 22. (The Guardian; Reuters)

The US campaign has escalated through several distinct phases since its inception. Operation Epic Fury, named by the Pentagon, began with strikes on approximately 90 Iranian military targets on July 7-8. An earlier wave on July 13 hit dozens of targets at multiple locations. The campaign includes a June strike on Iran's Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant using 30,000-pound GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs, conducted under the name Operation Midnight Hammer, which Trump detailed in a primetime address in April. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine publicly lauded the Fordow strike as successful. (CENTCOM; Defense.gov; The White House)

The broader context here is a conflict that has cycled through escalation, brief pause, and renewed escalation with no durable diplomatic scaffolding in place. The July 13 ceasefire collapse, triggered by Trump's reinstatement of a naval blockade, eliminated the only documented pause in hostilities. Since then, CENTCOM has struck Iran on 13 consecutive nights. Iran's retaliation has expanded geographically, from direct strikes on US facilities in three Gulf states to a civilian evacuation advisory that effectively threatens every US-adjacent site in the region. The Houthi blockade declaration, while unverified independently, has already produced measurable disruption to oil and shipping markets.

The great-power dimension adds a layer of risk that was largely absent in earlier US-Iran confrontations. Trump's simultaneous warning to and expression of trust in China and Russia captures the contradictory impulses shaping US strategy: deterrence toward Tehran's potential arms suppliers, coupled with a willingness to accept verbal assurances from leaders whose interests are not aligned with Washington's. Iran's confirmed consultations with Moscow and Beijing, along with the Araghchi-Lavrov meeting in Kyrgyzstan, suggest Tehran is actively cultivating diplomatic and potentially military support from both powers. Whether those consultations translate into material assistance remains the single most consequential variable determining the conflict's trajectory.