CME Group listed the front-month Henry Hub natural gas futures contract NGU26 at a last price of $2.685/MMBtu on August 4, 2026, up $0.003 (+0.11%) on the session with 516 contracts traded (CME Group). The print extends a multi-week drift below the $3 level that has characterized the contract since late May, when the prompt month briefly spiked to $3.11/MMBtu on May 19 after trading under $3 for several weeks prior (AGA).

Two days earlier, on August 2, NGU26 settled at $2.751/MMBtu, up $0.004 (+0.15%) on volume of 2,535 contracts (CME Group). The August 4 print thus reflects a $0.066/MMBtu decline from the August 2 level, a roughly 2.4% drop over two sessions on substantially thinner volume (516 versus 2,535 contracts). The volume collapse alongside the price decline is notable: thin participation into a front-month contract approaching its settlement window can amplify price moves and widen bid-ask spreads, distorting the reliability of the last-price print as a clean read on fundamental value.

CME Group maintains dedicated quotes, settlements, calendar, and volume & open interest pages for its Henry Hub natural gas futures and options complex (CME Group; CME Group; CME Group; CME Group).

The spot-price backdrop tells a divergent story. FRED lists the Henry Hub natural gas spot price (series DHHNGSP) at a 2026 average of $2.95/MMBtu, with the next monthly release scheduled for August 5, 2026 (FRED). That August 5 release will provide the first official read on July spot pricing and could materially inform the market's calibration of storage trajectories heading into the shoulder months.

The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook, published January 14, 2026, projects the Henry Hub spot price to decline approximately 2% to just under $3.50/MMBtu for full-year 2026 (EIA). That forecast was issued when prompt-month prices were trading in a higher range; with the front month now $0.80 below that annual projection, the EIA's next STEO update will be a key watch item for whether the agency revises its full-year mean downward.

The gap between the EIA's sub-$3.50 annual forecast and the current $2.685 front-month futures print is wide enough to warrant attention. The futures curve is pricing a spot environment materially weaker than what the EIA projected in January, and the August 5 FRED release will be the first hard data point to test whether that divergence is narrowing or widening. For traders and analysts tracking the natural gas complex, the convergence or non-convergence of the realized spot average toward the EIA's annual forecast, set against the forward curve's more pessimistic pricing, is the central tension to monitor as August settlement approaches.