AIPAC-aligned super PACs have spent more than $5 million in recent weeks to influence the special election for California's East Bay congressional district, targeting progressive frontrunner Aisha Wahab in a race to fill the seat vacated by Eric Swalwell's resignation earlier in 2026.

The spending includes $1.2 million from United Democracy Project, an AIPAC-backed super PAC, which disclosed $800,000 in direct spending on the race, according to Politico. Bold America PAC, which has received significant financial backing from United Democracy Project, contributed $2.1 million. Track AIPAC reported that AIPAC's total spending in support of Hernandez exceeded $4.4 million. The outside money has funded pro-Hernandez advertising and attack ads against Wahab. Outside groups had spent a combined $2.45 million in the race as of August 5, per the American Prospect, a figure that has since climbed as additional expenditures were reported.

Wahab, a California state senator endorsed by the California Democratic Party, is widely considered the frontrunner. She outpaced her closest competitor, former Dublin mayor Melissa Hernandez, by more than 20 points in both the June primary and the special election to complete the remainder of Swalwell's term, according to the Guardian. The Associated Press had separately confirmed Wahab's advancement to the special general election in June.

The two candidates are set to face off in a runoff election later in August 2026 and again in November.

Wahab has criticized Hernandez for allegedly dodging debates while relying on outside money. "We're not going to let this race be bought by outside interests," Wahab said in a social media video.

The California contest follows a broader pattern of AIPAC's expanded political engagement. The New York Times reported that AIPAC doubled its political spending to $67.2 million, concentrated largely in Democratic primaries. In Michigan's Democratic Senate primary, AIPAC spent millions backing moderate Haley Stevens against progressive Abdul El-Sayed, who ultimately won the contest.

FEC records list a committee named "Melissa Hernandez for Congress" (committee ID C00932541), registered on January 1, 2026, as an independent expenditure-only committee.

The broader context here is a sustained and well-documented escalation in AIPAC's electoral strategy. The organization, which is both one of the largest super PACs and the most powerful pro-Israel lobby in the United States, has significantly expanded its political spending in recent years. The California race is consistent with that trajectory: substantial resources deployed in a Democratic-leaning district to elevate a more moderate candidate over a progressive endorsed by the state party apparatus. What distinguishes the East Bay race is the scale of independent expenditure relative to the contest itself. More than $5 million in super PAC spending in a single House special election is a considerable sum, particularly when the targeted candidate holds a 20-point advantage in prior rounds of voting.

The structural question the race poses is whether independent expenditure at this magnitude can close a 20-point gap in a compressed runoff timeline, or whether it primarily serves as a signal of AIPAC's willingness to deploy resources even in races where the outcome appears settled. The Michigan Senate primary, where El-Sayed prevailed despite AIPAC's investment in Stevens, offers one data point suggesting that spending does not deterministically shape results. But each race carries its own dynamics. The August runoff and November general election will provide the actual measure of whether the investment narrows Wahab's margin or reshapes the field.