U.S. stock futures were mixed on August 6, 2026, as markets navigated conflicting signals on a potential Strait of Hormuz passage deal and fresh tremors in AI-adjacent chip and storage names. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose approximately 133 points, or 0.24%, while S&P 500 futures edged up 0.13%. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.55%, dragged lower by sharp drops tied to renewed anxiety about the artificial-intelligence trade (Quartz).

The prior session's cash-market close set the backdrop. The Dow fell 387.67 points, or 0.71%, to settle at 53,961.45. The S&P 500 closed down 0.07%, and the Nasdaq composite eked out a 0.04% gain (Reuters). Earlier in the prior week, stocks had been mixed as a pause in strikes involving Iran was offset by doubts about the AI boom and chip-stock valuations (Wall Street Journal).

The geopolitical thread driving the Dow and S&P futures higher is a proposed Hormuz passage agreement. Iran and Oman reached an understanding on the coordinates of a route through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iran's ministry (Reuters). Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent previously said the U.S. could reach a deal with Iran to reopen the strait, a prospect that sent stocks surging and oil prices sharply lower when first floated (Wall Street Journal). A senior U.S. official had separately said Iran should vow to reopen the strait by Saturday or face consequences (Wall Street Journal).

But the deal's feasibility is in serious doubt. On August 6, Reuters reported that shipping industry sources consider the proposed Iran-Oman Hormuz passage deal unworkable for commercial shipping (Reuters). The proposed framework would give Iran control over ships entering the Gulf through the strait. Iran is also seeking transit fees of between 5% and 7% of the value of cargoes from vessels using the passage, according to a senior Iranian official (Reuters). A cargo-level levy of that magnitude would be extraordinary for a chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of global oil supply transits, and it would directly compress refiner margins and elevate delivered crude costs in importing regions, assuming any portion of the fee were passed through.

On the earnings front, Western Digital (WDC) fell on disappointing guidance (Quartz). The decline fed into the Nasdaq 100's underperformance, where AI-driven valuation concerns continued to weigh on sentiment. The divergence between the Dow and S&P on one side and the Nasdaq 100 on the other reflects a market torn between geopolitical de-escalation, which benefits cyclicals and energy-sensitive names, and a re-pricing of AI-adjacent technology exposure where multiples remain stretched relative to near-term guidance.

On the commodities side, U.S. commercial crude stocks fell by 7.9 million barrels in the latest reporting week, while distillate stocks rose for a second straight week (Wall Street Journal). The crude draw signals tightening physical supply, which would normally be bullish for prices. But the prospect of a Hormuz deal, however uncertain, is the dominant variable for crude pricing right now. If the deal collapses under shipping-industry resistance, the geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil could reassert quickly. If it proceeds despite industry objections, the cargo-fee structure becomes the new variable to price.

The broader context here is a market pricing two unrelated risks simultaneously. The Hormuz question is binary in nature: either commercial shipping accepts the terms or it does not, and early signals from the industry point toward rejection. The AI narrative is more diffuse but no less consequential for index-level positioning. Nasdaq 100 futures lagging by 55 basis points while Dow futures lead suggests that capital is rotating away from growth and toward tariff- and oil-sensitive cyclicals on the margin, though one session's futures tape is not a trend. For portfolio managers, the relevant question is whether the Hormuz deal's failure to gain shipping-industry traction is already reflected in the overnight bid for Dow and S&P futures, or whether that bid is running on stale optimism from Bessent's earlier comments. TheReuters report dated August 6 is the most recent source, and it directly contradicts the market's apparent pricing of deal probability. That gap between the futures tape and the feasibility assessment from industry participants is the tension worth watching into the cash open.