SpaceX Stock Just Fell Below Its Launch Price — Here's What's Going On
SpaceX shares dropped below their $135 IPO price for the first time on July 15, 2026, closing at $135.27 after dipping as low as $132.28 during the day (Reuters). The slide caps a sharp reversal from the stock's mid-June peak above $225 and puts investors who bought in at the offering price to the test.
When a company goes public, it sets an IPO price, the price at which shares are first sold to investors. SpaceX priced its shares at $135, confirmed in its official offering document approved by Bafin, Germany's financial regulator, on June 5, 2026, which also set a maximum offering price of $162.00 (SpaceX EU Prospectus). The stock opened at $150 on its first day of trading, hit a high of $176.52, and closed up 19.2% at $160.95 (MarketWatch). From there, the shares climbed as high as $225.64 before sellers took control (MarketWatch).
At the July 15 close of $135.27, the stock sat roughly 30% below that mid-June peak. A day earlier, on July 14, shares had closed at $136.08, barely a dollar above the IPO price, after falling 2.2% the day before. They then rose as much as 2.4% during the day before resuming their slide (Bloomberg). Over the first 27 trading days, the stock was down 23% from its first-day closing level near $161 (MarketWatch).
The drop below the IPO price came as a key date approached: the end of what's called a lockup period. After a company goes public, insiders and early investors are usually locked up, meaning they cannot sell their shares for a set period, often several months. When that period ends, a large batch of new shares can suddenly hit the market. More shares for sale can push prices down, and the mere prospect of that happening often weighs on a stock beforehand. Reuters reported the selloff as an "ominous sign" as that expiry loomed (Reuters via Facebook).
The trajectory from $225.64 to below $135 in roughly a month would stress any newly public company, but the pattern is familiar. A lockup expiry introduces a known supply shock on a known date. What is harder to predict is how many shares actually get sold. If some investors are selling now because they expect the lockup expiry to drive prices down, then fewer sellers may show up when the lockup actually lifts. That is a question about market mechanics, not about what the company is worth.
What the company is worth is the murkier question. SpaceX came public with enormous expectations baked into its price and the rally that followed to $225.64. A 40% drop from peak to trough raises the question of whether the mid-June high was driven by real business fundamentals or by the scarcity of available shares, which can inflate prices when too few shares are available for the public to buy.
MarketWatch noted that comparisons to other big IPOs are already circulating. The outlet drew parallels to Meta's post-IPO performance and Tesla's early trading history, both of which had big swings after going public before heading in very different directions over the long run (MarketWatch). The takeaway is that falling below the IPO price does not necessarily predict how a stock will perform long-term, though there are not many companies of this size to compare against.
For professional traders, the key things to watch are how fast the reversal happened, how close the lockup expiry is, and how many buy orders are waiting below $135. The fact that the stock fell to $132.28 during the day on July 15 suggests some buyers were willing to step in just below the IPO price. But the close back at $135.27 means that level is not yet a firm floor. The small 0.6% decline, despite heavy attention, suggests the market is still searching for a fair price somewhere between early excitement and the realities of more shares becoming available to trade.
