A Very Strong El Niño Is Likely Coming This Year — Here's What That Means

U.S. weather forecasters now say there is an 81% chance that a "very strong" El Niño will arrive between October and December 2026. Only a one-in-five chance remains that it stays weaker than that. The forecast, published August 10 by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, is the strongest wording U.S. forecasters have used for the 2026 event so far. It matches a July 31 forecast from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) that a strong El Niño was developing and would keep getting stronger through late summer.

El Niño is a natural climate pattern that happens when the surface of the Pacific Ocean gets warmer than usual. That warm water changes wind and weather patterns around the world. It can bring heavy rain to some places and drought to others. The opposite pattern, when the Pacific gets cooler than normal, is called La Niña. Together, the two phases form a cycle scientists call ENSO.

The forecast has gotten stronger quickly. On June 2, the WMO said there was an 80% chance of an El Niño during June–August 2026. By mid-June, NOAA was already predicting a 63% chance that Pacific water temperatures would rise more than 2.0°C above normal — the level scientists use to define a "strong" event. On July 9, NOAA said El Niño conditions were already present and would grow stronger through the end of the year, with a 97% chance of lasting into early spring 2027. The WMO separately forecast above-normal temperatures worldwide tied to the event.

El Niño usually peaks between November and February. What is unusual this time is how early both NOAA and the WMO agree that a very strong event is coming. When two separate forecasting systems reach the same high-confidence conclusion this early, the important question is no longer whether the event will be serious. It is how serious, and which places will be hit hardest.

The reason El Niño affects weather far from the Pacific is a process scientists call "teleconnections." You can think of it like a domino effect: the warmer Pacific sets off changes in wind patterns, and those changes travel through the atmosphere and disrupt weather on other continents. That is how one ocean event becomes a global problem.

The WMO has called El Niño one of Earth's most powerful climate patterns. Past El Niño events have been linked to crop failures, wildfires, water shortages, stronger storms, and economic damage. Those risks are real this time. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) expects agricultural drought from the 2026 El Niño to hit hardest in the Sahel, Southern Africa, and South America. Central America and Southern Africa are expected to be among the regions most affected by food insecurity, according to Reuters reporting from August 6. In Sudan, El Niño-driven rainfall shortages in the sorghum and millet farming areas of Gedaref and Sennar could make existing crop failures worse.

The agricultural risk goes beyond developing regions. Drought tied to a "super" El Niño has been projected to delay crop planting and reduce wheat yields in the United States. Hot weather linked to the event has already affected Asian crop production. Historically, El Niño events have caused major crop losses, food price increases, and greater food insecurity across parts of Asia, Africa, and Latin America.

This El Niño is also starting on top of an already warm planet. The WMO reported that Western Europe had its hottest June on record in 2026, and published findings on ocean warming, marine heatwaves, and sea-level rise in early July. When you add El Niño to an already warm background, the temperature changes in regions that produce staple grains are more likely to exceed what past El Niño events would suggest.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has said El Niño will likely continue to affect the contiguous United States heading into September. The WMO, led by Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, has forecast significant weather shifts for the June–July–August 2026 season and has urged early action given the extreme weather expected from the event.

The broader context here is that the combination of NOAA's 81% very strong forecast, the WMO's intensification outlook, and the FAO's specific drought projections gives planners a fairly clear and narrow window of risk. There is a delay between when Pacific temperatures peak and when the agricultural effects show up. That means the October–December peak will likely translate into food system stress in the first and second quarters of 2027. The regions the FAO has flagged — the Sahel, Southern Africa, South America, Central America — plus areas affecting U.S. wheat and Asian rice production are the places to watch. The 97% chance the event lasts into early spring 2027 means food price effects and supply chain problems could continue even after Pacific temperatures start to cool.