BHP Just Had a Record Year Thanks to Copper — But Next Year Looks Tougher
BHP, one of the world's largest mining companies, saw its profit jump 30% to US$13.20 billion in the 2026 financial year (running from July 2025 to June 2026), beating what analysts had predicted. The big reason was copper — the metal used in wiring, electronics, and electric vehicles. Copper brought in a record US$18 billion in operating profit and, for the first time, earned more for BHP than iron ore, the other metal the company is famous for mining (Reuters). The company also announced a final dividend of US$1.72 per share — a cash payment to shareholders — which was its highest in four years (Reuters).
BHP's Annual Report 2026 confirms that copper made up more than half of the company's total operating profit for the full year (BHP Annual Report 2026). You could see the shift coming earlier: in the first six months alone, copper and its byproducts (including gold) earned US$7.95 billion, just edging past iron ore's US$7.50 billion (Reuters). Copper's share of profit in that half was 51% (BHP).
This is a big turnaround from the year before. In FY2025, BHP's profit had fallen to US$10.16 billion, a five-year low, because iron ore prices had dropped (Reuters). The year before that, FY2024, was US$13.66 billion (Reuters). The bounce back to US$13.20 billion came from both producing more copper and copper prices holding up better than iron ore prices.
Earlier in the year, BHP raised its copper production target to between 1.9 and 2.0 million tonnes (BHP). But the outlook has since worsened. In July 2026, BHP warned that copper production could drop by as much as 15.5% in the next financial year because of lower output from its mines in Chile (Reuters).
Chile is home to BHP's biggest copper mines, called Escondida and Pampa Norte. A 15.5% drop in production would reduce the very supply that drove this year's record profits. The timing is worth noting: copper is now BHP's biggest earner at exactly the moment when its main copper region is expected to produce less.
The broader picture is that BHP is changing what it earns money from. For the past decade, iron ore was the engine of this company. Now copper brings in the majority of profits, and that share is expected to grow as new projects come online. The tension is between that long-term plan — which ties BHP to the world's growing demand for clean energy and electric vehicles — and the short-term problem that Chile's aging mines and water shortages could cut copper output by double-digit percentages.
The key question for investors is whether BHP's copper mines outside Chile, mainly Olympic Dam in South Australia, can make up the difference. The moment copper overtook iron ore earlier this year was partly because copper prices were strong and iron ore prices were weak. If iron ore prices bounce back while Chilean copper falls, iron ore could temporarily reclaim the top spot, though the full-year figures suggest the shift toward copper is now baked in.
The record dividend tells shareholders that BHP is confident in its cash flow right now. But it comes with a warning that copper production may drop sharply next year. Investors are being asked to weigh a great year of earnings against a potentially tougher one ahead. Whether they see the Chilean slowdown as a temporary setback or a longer-term problem will shape how the market values BHP going forward.
