A Russian Navy ship fired warning shots at a British yacht in the English Channel on Tuesday, 17 June. The yacht was about 23 miles off the Isle of Wight. Russia says the ship's crew ignored repeated instructions to change direction, so the warship fired small arms rounds — rifle fire — as a safety warning.

The yacht's owners, Jane and Alan Kelvey, say this is not what happened. They told BBC Newsnight they had already changed direction and were making signals to show the warship what they were doing — before any shots were fired. The Independent reported they called Russian claims of a collision risk "lies."

These two stories cannot both be true. Russia says the crew ignored warnings. The Kelveys say they followed instructions before the weapons were used.

The incident raises legal questions. The English Channel is one of the world's busiest shipping lanes. Under international maritime law, warships can pass through such waters, but they are not allowed to fire weapons while doing so. Nobody has yet confirmed the exact location, which matters because it affects which country's laws apply.

What everyone agrees on is this: a Russian military ship was in waters very close to Britain. British and French navies regularly monitor the Channel for Russian ships passing through the Dover Strait, and report what they see — usually within hours. No official response from the UK government had been released by the time of publication.

Russian warships do occasionally pass through the Channel. This time is different because actual shots were fired — even if only warning shots — in waters next to the UK coast. And the British people on the yacht are willing to publicly say the Russian account is wrong.

The key question for the Kelveys is simple: if they had already signalled they were changing course, why did the Russian ship fire at them? That is the central fact that would need to be worked out in any official investigation.

The UK government is expected to issue a public statement. How it responds, and which government department makes the announcement, will show how seriously ministers treat what is, at minimum, a Russian warship firing live rounds near a British civilian vessel in home waters.