What Tony Burke Is About to Say on Visas and Arrivals
Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke will speak at the National Press Club in Canberra on Thursday about new rules to stop people staying on expired visas and to cut long appeal waits. The government was reported on 16 September 2026 to be getting ready to announce plans to bring overseas arrivals down on Thursday. The Guardian
His speech is called "The work of managing the migration program: Who arrives, who stays, who leaves". The government targets 185,000 permanent arrivals a year and wants net migration, the number left after departures are taken out, to fall from about 305,000 to about 225,000 over two years. The Guardian
Net migration has fallen for seven quarters in a row since September 2023. There were 568,370 overseas arrivals in Australia in the 2024-25 financial year, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics data. As of July 2026, there were 110,898 people refused a protection visa who had not yet been deported, according to Department of Home Affairs data. The Guardian
The context to keep in mind here is this speech is about more than overstays. The title covers the full story, from who gets a permanent place to temporary visits to who has to leave.
Burke delayed a National Press Club talk in early August that was expected to announce migration cuts. No reason was given for the delay at the time. ABC The cuts were described as contentious inside the Labor Party. Reported rule changes included tighter work rights and appeal rights for asylum seekers. The Saturday Paper
The politics to note here is a delay like that buys time. It lets the party argue in private and builds pressure outside. Caucus noticed. The press gallery noticed.
The broader context here is ministers can set one number but cannot control the final result. The 185,000 permanent places is a choice. Net migration is what is left after people come and go. It is like setting places for dinner but not knowing how many will arrive late or leave early, because students, temporary workers, departures and jobs all shift the total.
In my view, the focus on overstays is telling. It is about rules and order. It also lets Labor sound tough without restarting the internal fight over permanent numbers from August. Tighter work and appeal rights, as previously reported, would fit there. For lawyers and helpers the worry will be balance. Faster endings mean fewer long bridging waits. They also mean the first decision has to be right.
Looking at what this means for the numbers, watch the 110,898 figure. A group refused protection and waiting for removal is not new, but giving an exact July 2026 number raises questions about removal. Removals need paperwork, cooperation, court time and staff. Saying the plan on Thursday is easy. Doing the removals takes longer. A refusal is not the same as a departure.
To test the spin here, both claims can be true. The government says migration is falling, seven quarters in a row. The figures show 568,370 arrivals in 2024-25. Net numbers can fall while arrivals stay high if more people leave. So Thursday's detail matters more than the title: who loses work rights and when, what appeals change, what rules apply in between, and how removals would work. For now, this is a plan to announce, not a change delivered.
