Politics

Why the Bank of England Held Rates Steady — But Might Cut Soon

Eleanor WhitcombePublished 2month ago2 min readBased on 4 sources
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Why the Bank of England Held Rates Steady — But Might Cut Soon

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee kept interest rates at 3.75% in June 2026. It was close though. Seven members voted to hold rates; two voted to cut them lower, according to the Bank's June summary.

That matters because it shows the mood is changing inside the Committee. In April, only one member wanted to cut. By June, two did. In six weeks, the number of rate-cutters had doubled.

Rates have stayed at 3.75% since December 2025. Before that, the Bank had been cutting them slowly — from 4.00% down to 3.75%, and before that from 4.25%. Every cut has been small, with pauses in between.

Why inflation is cooling

Earlier this year, the Bank said UK inflation had stopped rising and was on the way down. The latest data supports that view. The June report shows that global energy prices have fallen. That helps, because energy pushes up the cost of almost everything.

There is a catch though. Energy prices can jump back up if something goes wrong in the world — a conflict, or a sudden spike in demand. That is why the Committee is not rushing to cut rates yet. The good news on inflation is real, but fragile.

Why some members want to cut now

Two Committee members voted for a rate cut. They are not saying the Bank has got the direction wrong. They just think it should move faster. Think of it like this: the Committee agrees on the destination, but some members want to get there sooner.

The Committee meets again in August. If energy prices stay low and wages and services inflation keep cooling, more members might vote to cut. Once you get to 6–3, that becomes a real turning point — though the Governor can break a tie.

What this means for you

If you have a mortgage on a variable or tracker rate, lower rates eventually mean lower monthly payments. You have already seen some relief from the peak rates of 2022 and 2023, but it has not been huge. If you are coming off a fixed-rate deal later this year, you will still be paying more than you were before you fixed.

Another rate cut before the end of 2026 would ease that pain. If the Bank holds rates steady instead, it will not.

The Bank has not said when it will move next. It waits for the latest numbers on inflation and wages before deciding. That approach has worked well since the Bank stopped making five-year forecasts — those went badly wrong in 2022 and 2023. But as more Committee members push for cuts, that careful "we're not saying anything yet" approach may become harder to keep up.