Josh Simons won Makerfield for Labour on 4 July 2024. He got 45.2% of the vote. That sounds like a comfortable win — but there's something in the detail that worried people watching the election.

Reform UK came second. They got 31.8% of the vote. That's a gap of about 5,400 votes. Now, 5,400 votes might sound like a lot. For Makerfield, it normally would be. Labour has held this seat for decades. It's in the north-west of England, in an area where people have voted Labour for generations. A difference of 13 points between first and second place is usually safe enough. But Reform UK didn't even exist as a party at the last election. That's what made people sit up and pay attention.

Makerfield is in Greater Manchester. It's a post-industrial area — a place that used to rely on manufacturing and heavy industry. Labour has treated seats like this as absolutely secure. When nearly a third of voters go for a brand new party instead, it's a sign that something is shifting. These aren't votes going to the Conservatives. They're votes going to a party with different ideas about immigration, public services, and how the economy should work.

Here's what made election-watchers careful about this result. Labour won a big majority in the general election, and holding a seat with 45% of the vote in a place like Makerfield is fine for winning power. But it tells us something different about what happens next. In a local by-election — where fewer people vote and only some voters turn out — smaller parties with strong supporters often do better than you'd expect from national polling. If Reform can hold onto its voters and grow its support, 31.8% might not be a peak. It could be just the start.

Across the north of England and the Midlands, Reform did surprisingly well in July 2024. Even people inside Reform were surprised by how many protest votes turned into actual votes for them. Whether this stays at 31.8% or climbs depends on whether Reform can build up its campaigning teams and whether people keep backing them in polls.

One more thing stands out. The Conservatives didn't come second here — they're not in the top two at all. When the party that's supposed to be Labour's main opponent isn't even the challenger, everything changes. Labour candidates can't just campaign against the Conservatives anymore. They have to campaign against Reform too. That means different messaging, different targeting, different where they spend their money and time.

Simons now sits as a new MP in a seat Labour has to actively defend — not against the Conservatives, as would normally happen, but against Reform from the right. That 13-point lead is real, but it can't be taken for granted.

For people interested in how northern communities vote, Makerfield is one piece of a bigger puzzle. When communities that used to vote Labour without thinking stop doing that, where do their votes go? This result doesn't answer that question. It makes it more urgent.