Colombia holds a presidential runoff on June 21, 2026, as the country faces an old problem: armed conflict that peace deals have not fully stopped. The current president cannot run again. The winner will inherit a messy security crisis born from the way a major peace agreement ended — but did not actually end — the country's war.

In 2016, Colombia signed a peace deal with FARC-EP, the main guerrilla army that had fought for decades. The deal promised to disarm the fighters, give land to peasants, and hold war criminals accountable through a special court. Most Colombians voted against it at first — the country was divided — but Congress approved a revised version anyway.

What Went Wrong

When the FARC-EP fighters laid down their weapons, the illegal businesses they ran did not disappear. They controlled coca fields, extortion operations, and drug smuggling routes. As soon as the main army demobilized, splinter groups moved in to grab those profits. Some FARC-EP commanders refused to disarm at all. Meanwhile, a rival guerrilla called the ELN expanded into areas the FARC-EP left behind.

The result: rural communities got caught in a new kind of violence, not between a unified guerrilla and the state, but among fragmented armed groups fighting over territory and money. Displacement in regions like Chocó and Catatumbo has climbed even after the peace deal.

This is not unique to Colombia. In other countries after peace deals — Mozambique, South Sudan, others — armed groups have fragmented, and new fighting erupted. But Colombia's case is harder because some fighters never disarmed.

The Choice Ahead

The outgoing president, Gustavo Petro, tried a strategy called "Total Peace." He negotiated with many armed groups at once, hoping they would all agree to ceasefires and talks. It produced temporary truces, but none of them lasted. When the new president takes office, they will face a hard choice: use the military to crush the armed groups, or keep negotiating with them. Neither approach has actually worked.

There is also a court — the JEP — that is trying to hold people accountable for war crimes. Many Colombians support it, but others want it dismantled. If the new president opposes the court, international partners like Norway and the United Nations may pull back support.

Beyond Colombia's borders, things are complicated. Venezuela, across the border, allows armed groups to hide on its territory, and the government there will not help Colombia stop them. Ecuador has been damaged by drug trafficking spillover from Colombian armed groups. The new Colombian president's decisions about diplomacy with Venezuela and how much to spend on fighting drugs will affect the whole region.

The election on June 21 does not solve any of these problems. It decides who will try. The 2016 peace deal remains the most serious attempt to end Colombia's conflict, yet it has not delivered the stability it promised. What the next government does with that deal — stick with it, change it, or abandon it — will determine whether peace in Colombia actually has a chance.