Who could form the next government? What the latest poll says
Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori could form a government on the latest 1News-Verian poll, if National keeps saying no to the Opportunity Party.
The poll came out on 28 September. It shows Green Party support has risen, according to RNZ. On these party-vote numbers, Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori could govern. That depends on who wins local seats, and on National leader Christopher Luxon sticking to his refusal to work with the Opportunity Party.
Verian looked at two possible results. Both depend on how many Māori seats Te Pāti Māori wins. Those Māori seat wins decide how the extra list seats are handed out, and so who gets how many seats in Parliament.
In one result, Te Pāti Māori wins four Māori seats and Mariameno Kapa-Kingi's Te Tai Tokerau party wins one seat.
In both results, the Opportunity Party would hold the balance of power. That is like holding the deciding vote when no side has the 61 seats needed to govern on its own. Luxon has ruled out working with the Opportunity Party.
The poll spoke to 1004 eligible voters from 23 to 27 September. The margin of error was 3.4 percent at the 95 percent confidence interval. That means the true number could be 3.4 points higher or lower.
Thirteen percent did not know or would not say who they would vote for. These undecided voters, non-voters and refusals are left out of the party-support numbers.
For preferred prime minister, Luxon was up two points. Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick was up two points. ACT leader David Seymour was up two points. Labour leader Chris Hipkins was down one point. NZ First leader Winston Peters stayed steady.
In the last poll, taken 8-11 August and out on 13 August, Labour was at 30 percent, down two from June, according to 1News. National was at 29 percent, with no change. The Greens were down one point. A separate report on that August poll put the Opportunity Party at 8 percent.
The June 1News-Verian poll had Labour and National at a 30-year low, according to 1News. Both were down, with Labour down five points, and the Opportunity Party was close to the 5 percent line to get into Parliament. The 19 April poll gave 66 seats to Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori, and 58 to National, NZ First and ACT. The Herald-Motu average of polls on 8 September had Labour at 27.9 percent.
Verian has polled for 1News for more than 25 years. Its name changed to the 1News Verian Poll when the company changed its global name.
The broader context here is the maths is very tight. If the Opportunity Party holds the deciding vote and Luxon says no to it, the right loses one path and the left has the numbers on this poll. People at the Beehive will ask if that no holds after the election, when the party with the deciding vote has more power.
Looking at what this means for seats, the Māori seat split is important. A four-one split brings a second Māori party into the talks. It changes overhang and wasted votes, the rules that decide how votes turn into the 61 seats needed to govern. With 13 percent undecided and a 3.4-point margin, numbers can still shift before the final count is official.
