A brand-new party just polled high enough to pick the next government

The Opportunity Party has cleared the 5 percent threshold for the first time in a 1News Verian poll, putting the party in position to decide whether Labour or National leads the next government. The poll, conducted from 8 to 11 August with a sample of 847 respondents, was published on 12 August 2026 and frames the party's surge against the backdrop of National's internal leadership turmoil 1News.

In New Zealand's voting system, MMP, a party needs to either win a local electorate seat or get 5 percent of all the votes across the country to get into Parliament. Think of the 5 percent threshold as a minimum entry bar — fall below it and you get no seats at all, no matter how many people voted for you.

The Opportunity Party rose 3 points to 9 percent, which would give it 9 seats. That is enough to give the left bloc a governing majority. Labour on 30 percent (38 seats), the Greens on 12 percent (15 seats) and Te Pāti Māori on 1 percent (6 seats) combine for 59 seats — short of the 63 needed in a 125-seat Parliament. Adding The Opportunity Party's 9 seats brings the left to 68. The right bloc — National on 29 percent (36 seats), ACT on 9 percent (11 seats) and New Zealand First on 8 percent (10 seats) — sits at 57 RNZ.

The 125-seat Parliament assumes current Māori electorate incumbents hold their seats, giving Te Pāti Māori its 6 seats despite the party polling at 1 percent RNZ.

Christopher Luxon ruled out working with The Opportunity Party near the end of July. Chris Hipkins, in the same week, officially ruled out New Zealand First, drawing a rebuke from Winston Peters. The practical effect of those exclusions is stark in this poll: without The Opportunity Party, neither side can govern. If Luxon reversed his position, the right bloc would reach 66 seats RNZ.

New Zealand First dropped 3 points to 8 percent. ACT rose 3 points to 9 percent — level with The Opportunity Party on party vote, though the seat count differs because ACT holds an electorate seat. Labour fell 2 points and the Greens were down 1. National was unchanged. Eleven percent of respondents said they did not know or refused to answer RNZ.

The poll lands in the wake of a leadership challenge inside National. Chris Penk launched the challenge, triggering a confidence vote. Luxon confirmed at a press conference on Wednesday afternoon that he survived the vote and had the full support of the National Party caucus. He removed Penk's portfolios the same week. Paul Goldsmith took up Defence, Veterans, Space, GCSB and NZSIS, and Simon Watts became Minister for Building and Construction RNZ.

Preferred prime minister ratings tell their own story. Luxon dropped 1 point to 17 percent. Hipkins is down 1 to 15 percent. Peters fell 3 points to 7 percent. Chlöe Swarbrick held steady on 6. David Seymour rose 1 to 5. Erica Stanford and Kieran McAnulty each gained a point, to 2 RNZ.

These figures contrast sharply with other recent polling. A Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll had Hipkins narrowly ahead of Luxon as preferred prime minister. The Spinoff reported on 7 August that a separate poll put Luxon up 4.1 points to 23.2 percent, ahead of Hipkins The Spinoff. The Roy Morgan series told a different story through the middle of the year: the National-led government was on 49 percent in July, down 2, after sitting at 51 percent in June and 51.5 percent in May Roy Morgan.

The Opportunity Party's rise has been building for some time. The party scored a then-record 4.6 percent in a 1News poll published 23 June 2026 — below the threshold but close enough to prompt party leaders to play down the newcomer's rise 1News. Three percentage points in under two months has put them over the line and into the kingmaker seat.

What this means in practice is that both major sides now face a new reality. The left bloc can point to a path to government that does not require New Zealand First. The right bloc's path, as things stand, runs through a party its leader has publicly ruled out. And The Opportunity Party, which has never sat in Parliament, now holds the arithmetic to decide who does.