Greens lead with Māori-roll voters: what the new poll says

Māori voters on the Māori roll now put the Greens ahead of Labour for the party vote, according to a Mata-Horizon poll released on 1 October.

The results were shared in a special episode of Mata Reports, and reported by RNZ. The poll asked Māori voters on both the Māori roll and the general roll how they would vote on 7 November. The party vote is the second tick. It decides how many seats each party gets.

Among Māori-roll voters, 28% picked the Greens. Labour was on 27%, Te Pāti Māori on 16% and the Opportunity Party on 6%. National, NZ First, ACT and the Te Tai Tokerau Party were each below 5%. On that roll, 9% were undecided and 3% said they would not vote.

Among Māori voters on the general roll, Labour led on 38% and the Greens were next on 17%. National was on 11%, NZ First on 10%, Opportunity on 6%, ACT on 4% and Te Pāti Māori on 2%. On the general roll, 8% were undecided and 3% said they would not vote.

The poll said the lift since the last election is with the Greens. They were up 17% with Māori-roll voters and up 7% with general-roll Māori voters. Labour was up 1% on the Māori roll and up 2% on the general roll. On the programme, former MP Tau Henare called the result "huge". Veteran journalist Tina Wickliffe called it "massive".

A recent 1News Verian poll also had the Greens on 16%, described as its highest level ever recorded. In that poll, National and Labour were both on 28%, according to 1News. NZ First was on 9% and the Opportunity Party was on 6%, according to Stuff. Te Pāti Māori was on 1.2%, up 0.1 points, according to coverage by The Conversation. That poll suggested Labour, the Greens, Te Pāti Māori and Opportunity could govern together with 65 seats. Separate RNZ coverage on 29 September noted the Greens had gained 4 percentage points, giving them a record 19 seats, and co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick had gained 2 points.

What this means for the campaign is the split between the rolls matters. The Greens lead only on the Māori roll, and only by one point over Labour, with Te Pāti Māori well back in third. On the general roll, where most Māori voters are enrolled, Labour keeps a clear lead and the Greens sit with National and NZ First behind Labour. The undecided voters on both rolls leave room for change before 7 November. For party planners, the question is whether this party-vote support turns into wins in the Māori seats, where winning locally and being the sitting MP count in a different way, and how Labour and Te Pāti Māori adjust when a third party is first or second with Māori voters.