Labour's down, the Greens are up, and the government looks safe — for now
Labour leader Chris Hipkins has shrugged off the latest poll putting his party on 25.9 percent, down 1.9 points, saying the only poll that matters is the election result.
Hipkins told media he would not comment on every individual poll between now and election day. "There'll be increasing numbers of them and the one that we're focused on happens on election day," he said. He would not answer questions about Labour's own polling or what may have caused the drop.
The result is Labour's lowest in the 1News Verian poll since July 2024, according to 1News, which published matching figures the same day showing Labour at 25.9 percent and Hipkins down 2.9 points to 16.9 percent on the question of who people want as prime minister (1News).
National fell to 29 percent in the Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll. Under New Zealand's voting system, called MMP, parties team up to form a government. On these poll numbers, the current government parties together would hold 64 of the 120 seats in Parliament, and the opposition parties would hold 56. A separate RNZ-Reid Research poll published 6 September found the same thing — the governing coalition would be returned to government (RNZ). In that poll, Christopher Luxon stayed ahead of Hipkins as preferred prime minister on 21.2 percent after dropping 2 points, while Hipkins fell 2.9 points.
Under MMP, a party usually needs 5 percent of the vote to get into Parliament. If a party falls below 5 percent and does not win a single electorate seat outright, it gets no seats at all.
Hipkins notably did not repeat his earlier criticism of the Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll. In August, he had called a poll by the group "right-wing" (RNZ). This time, according to the New Zealand Herald, he accepted that "polls move around" (NZ Herald).
Despite the numbers, Hipkins said the Labour team was feeling "buoyant" and had been holding back policy announcements to release during the campaign. He also accused National of being "desperate" with its tax attacks, saying the party could not campaign on the truth or its own record and was "making things up about the Labour Party."
Hipkins does have one positive number in the poll. He had the highest favourability rating of any party leader, with 37 percent of New Zealanders holding a favourable view versus 41 percent unfavourable (The Post).
The poll brought a big shift for the Green Party, which rose 3.8 points to 13.9 percent. That would give the Greens a record 18 seats in Parliament. Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick said the polls and commentary seemed to change every other week and that "every possible future is on the table for New Zealanders." She also said people were moving away from the two long-established parties and looking for alternatives.
The Opportunity Party fell from 6.1 percent to 4.5 percent, dropping below the 5 percent mark needed to get into Parliament without winning an electorate seat. That is a shift from late August, when a separate RNZ-Reid Research poll put Opportunity in a position where its seats could decide who forms the next government (RNZ). The 6 September RNZ-Reid Research poll found Opportunity had lost that position.
Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong pointed to the party's ten months of gains across polls and said the party was focusing on the overall trend. Wong also noted that ACT and the Greens could gain if support bleeds away from Opportunity.
The broader context here is that both major parties are losing ground. Both Labour and National now sit under 30 percent. In February, Hipkins and Luxon were level on 20 percent each as preferred prime minister. The latest 1News figures have Luxon well ahead on 21.2 percent versus Hipkins on 16.9 percent. A 1News poll in August had Luxon on 23.2 percent and Hipkins on 19.8 percent. Both leaders have been trending down, but Hipkins has fallen further in recent months.
For Labour, the question is whether the policy announcements Hipkins has been holding back can turn things around during the campaign. The party's vote has been slipping since mid-year, when a July poll had Labour at 27.8 percent. The latest 25.9 percent is a further drop, not a levelling off. The Greens' surge also creates a challenge for the left: Greens gaining 18 seats mostly at Labour's expense still adds up to a workable opposition in seat totals, but votes shifting from Labour to the Greens makes it harder for Labour to lead the opposition and control its message.
On the government side, National at 29 percent is also low by historical standards, but the coalition maths still works. The 64-seat governing bloc would survive even with Opportunity dropping out of Parliament. That may be the most important finding for the government: their position is getting stronger not because National is gaining support, but because the opposition vote is splitting across Labour, the Greens, and a now-too-small Opportunity Party.
