What November and December Gas Prices Are Telling Us About Winter
November 2026 natural gas was quoted at 3.087, up 0.014 (+0.46%), and December 2026 was at 3.734, up 0.021 (+0.57%). Henry Hub in Louisiana is the main U.S. price point for natural gas. On CME Globex, November 2026 is NGX26 and December 2026 is NGZ26, and the gap between the two prices is 0.647 CME Futures Quotes.
CME's official daily closing prices were lower. For NOV 26 the page shows 3.01600, 3.02100, 2.94700 and 2.95000. For DEC 26 it shows 3.34500, 3.35400, 3.28300 and 3.28500 CME Settlements. Quotes and closings differ because they are taken at different times and in different ways.
Other CME screens also differ. The futures calendar page shows NGX26 at 2.995, down 0.031 (-1.02%), with volume of 1,430, last updated 30 Sep 2026. The options quotes page shows NGX26 at 3.039, up 0.072 (+2.43%), with volume of 178,518 CME Calendar. These are not the same type of price, and far more changed hands on the options screen.
Weather forecasts come from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, which puts out 6-10 Day outlooks each day between 3pm and 4pm Eastern Time. Its 8 to 14 Day Outlook for Oct. 12 to 18, 2026 was updated Oct. 4, 2026. It favors warmer-than-normal weather in southeastern Mainland Alaska and Southeast Alaska NOAA Discussion. Its Week 3-4 Outlook leans warmer than normal for the CONUS, the lower 48 states, with higher chances of warm weather across much of Alaska.
For supply, the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Oct. 6, 2026 forecast working gas in storage at 3,969 billion cubic feet EIA STEO. Think of it like a pantry stocked before winter. Today's price picture is dated Oct. 5, 2026 GMT, so the weather outlook and the storage forecast look forward from the Sept. 30 calendar price.
The broader context here is the shape of prices, not just one price. December costs more than November. That extra cost covers storing gas and having it ready for the peak heating month. December still costs more on the closing prices too, so that shape holds even when daily trading moves prices around.
In my view, the key question is storage versus weather. The 3,969 billion cubic feet is the cushion before winter withdrawals pull gas out of storage. If warmer weather holds across much of the country and Alaska, less gas gets used early. Heavy options trading points to where most hedging is happening. Watch whether closings line up with quotes and whether the storage forecast changes.
