The NDIS is projected to cost $50 billion in 2025–26, according to Treasury. That's more than the defence budget. It's more than what the government spends on aged care across the entire country.

In just ten years, the NDIS has become one of the biggest commitments the Australian government makes. And it keeps getting bigger — it's been growing by more than 10 per cent every single year.

Why? Because the NDIS is set up as an entitlement. If you qualify, you get support. The money flows to meet demand. That's how it was designed to work — and it has worked that way. The problem is that costs have grown much faster than anyone expected when the scheme started.

What's happening with the money

The scheme was built on a good idea: invest money early in supporting people with disability, and you'll save money later because people will work more and won't need crisis services as much. That might be true. But to make it true, the scheme needs to work exactly as planned — with clear rules about who qualifies, support starting early, and no wasted spending.

Instead, costs have run ahead of what the Treasury's original numbers predicted. More people got support than expected. Plans cost more than expected. The money spent on administration and coordination has been higher than forecast.

The hard part: what happens next

Neither the government nor the opposition wants to talk publicly about cutting NDIS spending. Labor built the scheme and expanded it — it feels like theirs. The Liberal Party was in power while costs exploded the most — they don't want to admit that. Both sides worry that talking about cost control sounds like attacking people with disability. And the crossbench MPs — the Greens and independents — have made it clear they'll resist anything that looks like cutting support.

But Treasury is saying the current path is not sustainable. The money is real. The budget can't just keep growing one program without limits and still pay for other things — roads, schools, defence.

The fix isn't simple. It's not about one big announcement. It means working out who really needs what level of support, getting help to people earlier before things get expensive, and cutting out wasteful spending. All of that takes time and detailed policy work.

The $50 billion figure is a turning point. The scheme isn't going to collapse. But the days of just letting it grow without thinking about how it fits into the rest of the budget are over.