The Fed Raised Rates Again — Here's What to Watch Next
The Federal Reserve released notes on October 7, 2026 from its September 15-16 meeting, when it raised its main interest rate by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4%. That rate helps set what savers earn and what borrowers pay. The statement for that meeting came out September 16, 2026 at 2:00 p.m., according to the Federal Reserve's conference page. Federal Reserve The rate decision was spelled out in the September 16 statement. Federal Reserve
That statement came with economic forecasts and a press conference on September 16. Two meetings are left this year. The Fed will meet October 27-28 with a press conference, and release notes on November 18. It will meet December 8-9 with a press conference, and release notes on December 30.
Before the October 7 notes, investors were betting less on another quick hike. On October 7, 2026, the chance of a hike of at least a quarter point in October was 21.6%, down from about 51% a week earlier. Reuters After jobs data earlier in the month, bets had pointed to about a 25% chance of an October hike. Reuters
Fed officials Williams and Jefferson said the Fed has time to think about its next move while an October hike was discussed. Reuters Analysts at Evercore ISI said the Fed was not expected to raise rates again right away at its October 2026 meeting, per that same reporting.
On prices, officials at their July 2026 meeting said higher rates may be needed unless price growth cools. CNBC Staff numbers in the June 17 notes put overall price growth at 4.1 percent in May 2026, with core price growth without food and energy at 3.4 percent in May. Federal Reserve After the September hike, Warsh said "inflation is too high."
The broader context here is whether one hike is enough. Think of rates like a thermostat for the economy. The September move to 3.75% to 4% turned cooling up a notch. The question for October 27-28 is whether the Fed waits to feel the effect or turns it up again. The fall from about 51% to 21.6% points to investors now expecting a wait after the jobs data and comments from Williams and Jefferson.
In my view, the October 7 notes matter less for what the Fed did than for three open questions: how officials weighed 4.1 percent overall inflation against 3.4 percent core, what would call for another quarter point in October or December, and how the forecasts show rates going into year-end. With two meetings and two note releases left in 2026, short-term money markets have clear dates to watch. The risk to watch is tough talk in the notes lifting October bets again.
