Ukraine has launched a sustained campaign of drone attacks on Russian oil refineries and fuel depots, shrinking Russia's ability to produce fuel and now creating shortages that are spreading across the country. What started as fuel shortages in the Russian-occupied Crimea peninsula have now reached neighboring regions of southern Russia, according to Reuters on June 29, 2026.

The Scale of the Damage

Russia's oil refining has dropped to its lowest level in 16 years as a result of Ukrainian strikes, United24 Media reported on June 2, 2026. Ukraine's security agency reported 160 successful attacks on Russian oil facilities in 2025 alone, according to Kyiv Post. By 2026, the attacks intensified: Ukraine began hitting refineries, fuel storage depots, and transportation routes all at the same time, making it harder for Russia to both produce and distribute fuel.

The results are real. Officials in Crimea stopped selling gasoline to civilians in June 2026 because fuel supplies ran so low, AP News reported on June 21. Other strikes knocked out electricity in Sevastopol, a major port city in Crimea that also handles fuel shipping, Reuters reported on June 24. A large refinery near Moscow was so badly damaged that it won't be back in operation until 2027, according to Reuters.

Ukraine has also struck refineries deep inside Russia itself. In May 2026, AP News noted that satellite photos showed massive smoke plumes rising from burning oil facilities. Russian officials confirmed fires at several energy sites.

Why Ukraine Is Doing This

Ukraine has been clear about its strategy: it wants to limit Russia's fuel supply for both military use and civilian economy. From December 2024 through January 2025, Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian fuel infrastructure doubled, and over half of those attacks targeted energy sites, according to ACLED analysis.

Russia's military relies on fuel — especially diesel and jet fuel — from its own refineries to operate tanks, trucks, and planes. When refineries are damaged, Russia can't produce the fuel its armed forces need. At the same time, fuel shortages drive up prices for ordinary Russians, which makes it harder for the Russian government to pay for its war.

Russia is fighting back the same way. Russian attacks on Ukrainian power plants and fuel facilities jumped from 2024 to 2025, reaching over 950 strikes, according to ACLED. Both countries are now trying to destroy each other's fuel supplies. But Ukraine has an advantage: it imports refined fuel from other countries, so it has backup sources. Russia's refineries are in fixed locations inside its own territory — much easier targets for drones.

What Happens Now

The fact that fuel shortages have spread from Crimea into southern Russia raises a question: Can Moscow move fuel from one region to another to make up for the damage? The decision to stop selling gasoline to regular people in Crimea suggests Russia is already rationing its fuel — choosing to keep supplies for the military and important uses. History shows this kind of rationing often leads to bigger shortages later.

Because the Moscow refinery won't reopen until next year, Russia loses a major source of fuel for the rest of 2026. When refineries get hit, they usually take longer to repair than officials expect. If that pattern continues, fuel production could get even worse.

When fuel runs short across entire regions of a country, not just in one place, it becomes harder for the government to manage — and people notice. For Russia, spreading fuel shortages may end up hurting the government's standing at home as much as they damage military operations.