New Rules for Betting on Elections and Other Future Events
On October 9, 2026, the CFTC published Release No. 9310-26 titled "CFTC Seeks Public Comment on Notice of Proposed Rulemaking Concerning the Inclusion of Certain Event Contracts in the Definition of Swap" CFTC. It asked the public to comment on a plan to treat certain event contracts as swaps.
Think of an event contract like a ticket that pays if something specific happens. A swap is a legal agreement where money changes hands based on an outcome or price move. The proposal would add event contracts to the legal definition of swap. The CFTC says these contracts are usually built as swaps CFTC. It would define a "prediction market" as a federally licensed exchange or trading platform — a designated contract market or swap execution facility — that offers these swap-style event contracts. Only those licensed venues offering that type would count.
On the same day, the CFTC published Release No. 9309-26 titled "CFTC Issues Interim Final Rule Excluding Certain Activity from the Definition of Swap" CFTC. One paper proposes what counts as a swap. The other sets a temporary rule for what does not count. One uses full public comment. The other uses an interim final rule.
There were earlier steps. In March, the CFTC published an early notice asking for ideas on prediction markets. On June 10, 2026, Reuters reported the CFTC had put out draft rules for the industry Reuters. A June 24 analysis from the Congressional Research Service said the 2026 proposal would change Rule 40.11 to require a one-by-one check of event contracts CRS. Under that description, each contract would be judged alone, not as a group. The same analysis said the proposal would define "gaming" to include bets on political elections. Rule 40.11 is the rule that blocks certain types from being listed.
CFTC learning materials say prediction markets help people forecast, plan, hedge risk, and use views about the future. Event contracts, in that description, can protect against money loss or be used to bet on prices and outcomes.
The broader context here is about who watches the market, not approval of a single bet. If these contracts count as swaps on licensed exchanges, they must follow federal swap rules. That means trade reporting, clearing when required, fair-business rules, and anti-cheating protections that do not apply the same way elsewhere. Lawyers and compliance teams will ask which contracts meet the inclusion wording and which sit inside the exclusion.
Looking at what comes next, each contract must be tested three ways. Does it match the inclusion wording. Does it fall in the exclusion. Was it sold on a licensed exchange in swap form. Public comments will shape the final wording. The exact wording, the size of the exclusion, and the Rule 40.11 check will decide what can be offered and how it is overseen.
