Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to announce which company will build Canada's new submarines on Monday in Halifax, according to The Globe and Mail, citing unnamed sources. The announcement will happen before Carney travels to a NATO meeting in Turkey.

Two companies are competing. Germany's ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (working with Norway) is offering one type of submarine. South Korea's Hanwha is offering another. Both companies have already been approved as qualified suppliers by the Canadian government.

Canada plans to buy 12 submarines — the largest order in the country's naval history. The submarines alone will cost between $20-billion and $30-billion. When you add all the costs of running and maintaining them over their lifetime, the total could reach $40-billion to $50-billion. Canada has not bought new submarines in 60 years; the current fleet of four submarines is second-hand.

What Each Company Is Promising

Both companies are offering Canada jobs and investment as part of their bid.

Hanwha says it will bring more than $70-billion in trade and investment to Canada, creating more than 25,000 jobs every year through 2044. ThyssenKrupp says its proposal would add $86-billion to Canada's economy and create more than 650,000 jobs overall.

These numbers come from the companies themselves, so they should be treated carefully. The Canadian government will have done its own calculations to check these claims.

This Isn't the Final Deal

The announcement on Monday will choose a preferred company — not sign a final contract. Think of it like picking your preferred contractor before negotiating the actual price and schedule. Haggling over the final terms, including price and how many jobs will actually go to Canada, could take years.

This pattern is standard for big Canadian defence purchases. The government picks a winner, then spends months or years working out the details before anyone signs anything.

Why Halifax, Why Now

The Carney government is planning a major boost to defence spending — increasing it to five per cent of Canada's economy by 2035. (For comparison, NATO asks members to spend at least two per cent.) The submarine programme is the biggest piece of this spending plan.

Halifax is chosen deliberately. Irving Shipbuilding, the company that currently builds Canadian warships, is based there. Both competing companies will need to build or arrange Canadian manufacturing, and Atlantic Canada wants to ensure jobs and contracts flow to the region.

When Carney walks into the NATO meeting in Turkey, he will be able to point to a concrete plan rather than just a wish list.