Prices Are Up 3.7% From Last Year — What It Means for You
Prices were 3.7% higher than a year earlier in September, up from 3.4%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on October 14. BLS CPI release
What this means for your wallet is direct. This is the inflation number the Fed will have when its rate-setting group, the Federal Open Market Committee, meets in late October to decide on interest rates. Those rates affect loans and savings.
In a separate release that same day, the Bureau said prices rose 0.6 percent in its September 2026 Real Earnings release, using its Consumer Price Index for All employees/consumers. BLS Real Earnings release
The price news came after a soft jobs report for September. Employers added 29,000 jobs, below the 90,000 economists expected. After that report, market bets pointed to about a 25% chance the Fed would raise rates in October. Reuters
That market bet comes from prices for 30-Day Fed Funds futures. The CME FedWatch tool uses those prices to track the chance of a Fed rate change.
On timing, the Federal Reserve lists a two-day FOMC Meeting on October 27-28, 2026. Meeting notes for September 15-16, 2026, shared on October 6, say the next meeting would be "Tuesday-Wednesday, October 27-28, 2026." Federal Reserve minutes The Committee holds eight regular meetings a year plus extra ones if needed, with calendars and notes posted for 2021-2027. Federal Reserve calendars
The broader picture here is tricky. Think of the Fed like a driver getting two different road signs. Prices sped up from last year. Jobs grew much slower than expected. That mix makes its next move harder to call.
Looking at what this means for those market bets, order matters. The 25% chance came before the October 14 price news. Those odds must now factor in higher inflation.
For your paycheck, the math is simple. Pay gains minus price gains decide if you can buy more. A 0.6 percent price jump is a high hurdle. Both price reports came less than two weeks before policymakers meet.
