Why Gas Prices Dipped Even With Cold Weather Coming

U.S. natural gas futures fell 3.1% to $3.182 per mmBtu ahead of the weekly storage report, the Wall Street Journal reported on Oct. 14 in 'U.S. Natural Gas Futures Fall Ahead of Weekly Storage Data' Wall Street Journal. Think of mmBtu as the standard measuring cup for pricing gas. The fall wiped out earlier gains before the EIA number. A brief cold front was expected in the Northeast that weekend.

EIA put working gas in storage at 3,500 Bcf as of Friday, Oct. 2, up 85 Bcf from the week before for the week ending Oct. 2 EIA. Bcf means billion cubic feet. Like a savings account, an injection is a deposit of gas, and October deposits set how much we start winter with.

January shows how fast that balance moves. EIA's Natural Gas Weekly Update for the week ending Wednesday, Jan. 21 reported withdrawals of 120 Bcf for the week ending Jan. 16, versus a five-year average of 191 Bcf and 228 Bcf last year EIA. Working stocks were 3,065 Bcf that week, 177 Bcf (6%) above the five-year average and 141 Bcf (5%) above last year.

Exports pulled gas out that week. EIA reported 37 LNG vessels holding 139 Bcf left U.S. ports between Jan. 15 and Jan. 21, citing Bloomberg Finance shipping data. LNG is gas made liquid to ship by tanker. Nine left Sabine Pass, eight left Plaquemines and six left Corpus Christi. EIA, citing Baker Hughes, said the gas rig count fell by 2 to 122 for the week ending Jan. 13.

EIA expects U.S. dry gas production to grow from a record 107.6 Bcf/d in 2025 to 111.7 Bcf/d in 2026 Reuters. That is up 4.1 Bcf/d. Bcf/d means billion cubic feet per day.

EIA expects the Henry Hub price, the main U.S. gas price in Louisiana, to average $3.16 in 2027, down 32 cents (9%) from 2026 Natural Gas Intel. The forecast fell even as the storage outlook tightened. The gap between 2026 and 2027 prices is used for storage and business planning.

On oil, U.S. crude stocks fell 3.2 million barrels to 424.1 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 2, the EIA said Reuters. EIA expects Brent oil, the world oil price, to average about $98 per barrel in 2026, up 8% from last month's forecast, and $105 in the fourth quarter Reuters.

Two earlier WSJ items reported storage moves. A Nov. 27, 2024 item titled 'U.S. Natural Gas Futures Give Back Gains' said inventories fell 2 billion cubic feet to 3,967 Bcf with a price of $3.258/mmBtu amid warmer weather. A March 5, 2026 item titled 'U.S. Natural Gas Futures Settle Higher' said futures rose after a slightly bigger-than-expected 132 Bcf draw.

The broader context here is plenty of stored gas against brief cold weather. With an 85 Bcf injection and 3,500 Bcf stored, one cold weekend in one region cannot stretch far. Prices can still pop briefly around the report. It would take many cold weeks in a row or a supply problem for higher prices to last.

In my view, it is new supply against steady exports. Output near 111.7 Bcf/d rebuilds storage fast when heating drops. Shipments near 139 Bcf a week keep the Gulf Coast tight. A 2027 price of $3.16 means supply is expected to cover demand. Watchers will focus on the surplus above normal, rigs at 122, and Q4 Brent near $105.