Fewer families are getting the government's fuel payment than promised

The government said 157,000 families would get weekly fuel relief payments. New data shows only about 95,000 families are receiving them each week since the scheme started in April, according to figures from Inland Revenue obtained by RNZ.

In total, 106,120 families have claimed the payment at least once. That's a significant gap between what the government promised and what's actually happening.

How the payment works

The fuel relief is a temporary boost to the in-work tax credit — a payment the government gives to working families with children. The boost adds extra money to what families already receive. Families can choose to get their tax credits paid weekly, every two weeks, or as a lump sum at tax time in March.

Where the numbers don't match

When the government announced the scheme in March, it said about 143,000 families would get an extra $50 a week, with another 14,000 families getting a smaller amount. That added up to 157,000 families total. But by Budget Day in May, the government's language had changed. Instead of saying families "will get" the payment, it said they would get it "if it remains in place for a full 12 months" — and the materials said support would reach "up to" 157,000 families. That "up to" qualifier wasn't in the original announcement.

Inland Revenue had expected that about one in five families — roughly 30,000 — would wait and take their boost as a lump sum in March rather than claim it weekly. That would explain some of the difference between the 95,000 weekly average and the total number eligible.

But even accounting for that, the numbers still don't add up. There's a gap that the available information doesn't fully explain — whether it's families who are eligible but haven't signed up, a delay in Inland Revenue's processing, or an overestimate in the original 157,000 figure.

What the dispute is really about

The Finance Minister Nicola Willis was overheard telling Prime Minister Christopher Luxon that RNZ's reporting on this gap amounted to "RNZ mischief making." Willis's office told RNZ that 157,000 families would benefit if the scheme ran for a full 12 months, saying the design of the payment — not a shortfall in uptake — explained the discrepancy. The fuel relief is meant to run for up to a year, or stop once petrol prices fall below $3 a litre for four weeks in a row, whichever happens first.

The real issue here is that the government shifted its language between March and May without explaining why. Saying a policy "will" reach a certain number of people and then saying it will reach them "up to" that number — with no public explanation in between — naturally raises questions. The minister's private remark to the Prime Minister suggests the government saw the journalism as unfair, rather than as reasonable scrutiny of a public spending commitment.

What remains unclear

The government and Inland Revenue have given explanations for part of the gap — the lump-sum recipients who are choosing to wait. But they haven't clarified what accounts for the rest. As the fuel relief scheme runs its course, that distinction will matter: it will help explain whether the government's cost estimates for the payment were based on realistic assumptions about how many people would actually take it up.