Abdul El-Sayed is leading Michigan's Democratic primary to pick a new senator, but the race remains wide open. One candidate dropped out in early July, leaving just El-Sayed and Haley Stevens in the running The Guardian. Even though El-Sayed polls better, huge sums of outside money support his opponent—and voters across the state say they're still undecided with a month to go.

Senator Gary Peters announced in January 2025 that he would retire, which triggered this contest The New York Times. Three major candidates entered the race. Then Mallory McMorrow withdrew on July 5, leaving El-Sayed and Stevens. The general election happens November 3, 2026.

One candidate has much more money behind her. Outside groups—organizations not directly connected to the campaigns—have spent over $34 million combined to help Stevens, with a super PAC (a type of unlimited-money political group) backed by AIPAC putting in about $20 million alone The Guardian. Stevens's ads highlight her work with Barack Obama on saving Detroit's auto industry, a message designed for Michigan voters who still remember that federal rescue. El-Sayed started his TV ads in mid-June with a cheaper campaign that emphasizes his Michigan childhood and his support from Senator Bernie Sanders.

Reporters spoke with voters in four important areas: Lansing, Macomb County, Dearborn, and Grand Rapids. Each region tells a different story. Grand Rapids, in western Michigan, has traditionally voted Republican but is shifting; El-Sayed visited there with campaign volunteers on July 7, suggesting he thinks he can win support beyond Detroit. Dearborn has a large Arab American and Muslim population, and AIPAC's spending against El-Sayed—who is Muslim and has faced questions about his stance on Israel—creates local tension The Guardian.

Macomb County is the real test. This working-class suburb east of Detroit voted for Obama twice (2008 and 2012), then flipped to Trump three elections in a row (2016, 2020, and 2024) The Guardian. In 2016, Trump won about 54 percent to Clinton's 42 percent MLive. Researchers called Macomb one of 206 "Pivot Counties" nationwide that swung from Obama to Trump Ballotpedia. Whether Democrats can win back these working-class voters matters enormously to Michigan's political future.

Even some local Democratic leaders haven't decided. Shannon King, an elected Democrat in Clinton Township and a Macomb County official, told reporters she was still undecided The Guardian. Her hesitation is striking because local party figures usually pick a side early.

Some Democrats expect the polling frontrunner to lose anyway. Toni Gordon, 33, a PhD student at Michigan State University who runs elections in East Lansing and served three years as an Army reservist in the Middle East, personally backs El-Sayed but thinks Stevens will win the primary The Guardian. Many voters share that tension: they like one candidate but expect another to win.

Why does this matter? August primaries usually have low turnout—fewer people voting than in general elections. When money flows in that heavily on one side, it can shift results more than polls predict. Whether El-Sayed's grassroots push and Sanders-style message can overcome Stevens's $20 million advantage, or whether her Obama auto-industry story wins over working-class voters, will likely decide this race in the final month of campaigning.