Eli Lilly's Earnings Report: The Numbers That Matter Most
Eli Lilly reports its third-quarter 2026 results on October 29, 2026. The company has beaten earnings-per-share estimates five quarters in a row. Yahoo Finance
Analysts expected third-quarter revenue of $22.61 billion, up about 28% from a year earlier. Investopedia Revenue is the total money a company takes in from selling its products, before paying costs.
Guidance is the company's own forecast for the full year. In August, Lilly raised its 2026 revenue outlook to $85.0 billion to $87.0 billion. Lilly In April, the range was $82.0 billion to $85.0 billion. The first range, in February, was $80 billion to $83 billion, with earnings-per-share guidance of $33.50 to $35.00 on a non-GAAP basis. Both ends of the range have moved higher at each update.
The second quarter gives the best point of comparison. Revenue rose 48% to $23.0 billion, driven mainly by volume of Mounjaro and Zepbound. Earnings per share rose 26% to $7.94. PR Newswire
The $22.61 billion estimate sits about $0.4 billion below that figure. That implies revenue slipping from the second quarter to the third. The gap is small. A modest beat or miss would change the year-over-year growth rate more than the quarter-to-quarter change.
Most of the expectations sit in two products. S&P Global Market Intelligence projected Mounjaro sales of nearly $10 billion, up about 53% from a year earlier. It projected Zepbound sales of $5 billion, up about 39%. S&P Global Together, those two come to roughly $15 billion, about two-thirds of the $22.6 billion revenue estimate. If those products fall short, most of the headline number falls with them.
Earnings estimates have moved more than revenue estimates. Yahoo Finance reported that the third-quarter earnings estimate fell from $9.87 to $6.67. The cause was acquired in-process research and development (IPR&D) charges. Yahoo Finance
Think of an IPR&D charge as a one-time bill. A company buys an early-stage drug project that has not yet been approved, and it records the cost in that quarter. The charge cuts reported profit for the period, so a quarter can look weaker per share even while sales grow. When you compare per-share figures, check whether they include these charges. Also check whether they are GAAP, the standard accounting rules, or non-GAAP, which leaves out certain items the company chooses to exclude.
The longer trend is strong. Third-quarter 2025 revenue rose 54% to $17.60 billion, with earnings per share of $6.21. PR Newswire Fourth-quarter 2025 revenue rose 43% to $19.3 billion. First-quarter 2026 revenue rose 56% to $19.8 billion, mainly from volume growth. Each quarter, the number being compared against gets bigger. Growth percentages will tend to shrink even if the dollar gains hold steady.
In my view, the guidance will matter more than the quarter itself. Lilly has raised its revenue range at each of the three updates this year, which points to confidence in sales volume. But a $2 billion range is still wide. The third-quarter numbers will show whether the first-half pace holds through the second half. If Lilly keeps the $85 billion to $87 billion range, the fourth quarter would need to be large to get there. If it narrows or raises the range, investors will likely read that as the volume trend continuing.
Forecasts always carry a real margin for error. Third-party estimates for individual products rest on prescription data and assumptions about prices and where the drugs are sold. A single IPR&D charge can move earnings per share by several dollars in one quarter.
