Smoke from two wildfires on the moors near Dovestone in Greater Manchester drifted across the region in mid-July 2026. It covered parts of Sale, Manchester city centre, Levenshulme, and Wythenshawe in haze. This happened as Andy Burnham was about to become the UK's next prime minister. Firefighters were still fighting the fires on 14 July. Health experts warned people about the smoke and air quality. Only one area on Greater Manchester's air quality map was rated "good" during the fires. Some residents said they woke up smelling smoke as early as 3am.

The fires came after a terrible summer. The UK had three heatwaves in 2026. The first, from 21 to 29 May, killed about 550 people from heat-related causes, according to the Met Office. The second, from 18 to 28 June, killed nearly 2,200 more. The Guardian reported that during the worst days of the June heatwave, extreme heat caused about 440 deaths per day in England and Wales. In total, the May and June heatwaves killed about 2,700 people across England and Wales.

The heatwaves also damaged crops. Another bad harvest in 2026 would be the UK's fourth since 2020. They disrupted schools and cost businesses at least £2.4 billion in lost work.

On 16 July 2026, The Guardian published a feature looking at Burnham's record on climate change and the choices he will face if he becomes prime minister. Two days earlier, Carbon Brief published a collection of 28 things Burnham has said publicly about climate change, energy, and transport.

So what is Burnham's track record? As mayor of Greater Manchester, he set a goal of reaching "net zero" carbon emissions by 2038. Net zero means cutting the pollution that causes climate change as close to zero as possible. The UK's national target is 2050, so Burnham's local goal was much sooner. He expanded and started electrifying bus services and launched programmes to insulate homes. He rejected fracking in north-west England. Fracking is a method of extracting oil and gas from deep underground by forcing water into rock, which critics say can cause earthquakes and pollute water. Burnham has been less clear about where he stands on oil and gas drilling in the North Sea.

Chris Venables, a campaigner at the Green Alliance thinktank, said Burnham "has been very quiet about the climate crisis so far." But he argued this does not mean Burnham will weaken climate plans. He thinks the silence is a political strategy, not a lack of commitment. Time magazine noted on 23 June that while many countries were pulling back on climate action, the UK had been pushing harder over the previous two years. The new prime minister could either continue that push or reverse it.

The signals from Burnham's team are mixed. Ed Miliband, the current energy secretary and the government's strongest voice on climate, was being considered for the role of chancellor. The chancellor is the person in charge of the UK's money and government spending. Rivals told reporters that Miliband lost out to home secretary Shabana Mahmood. Some people saw this as a possible setback for climate policy. Miliband has been heavily criticised by rightwing newspapers and politicians, so keeping him in any senior role would be politically difficult.

The stakes go beyond the UK's own pollution targets. A "super El Niño" weather system was forecast. El Niño is a natural warming of the Pacific Ocean that can cause extreme weather around the world. A "super" version is an especially strong one. Economists warned it could seriously raise global food prices into 2028. The UK's joint intelligence committee said that protecting nature and solving the energy crisis are national security issues. That means climate policy is not just about the environment. It is about keeping the country safe.

Craig Bennett, head of the Wildlife Trusts, said the economic and ecological crises cannot be separated. He said fixing the economy and fixing climate and nature are "inseparable and should be solved in a holistic, joined-up way."

The Guardian reported on 25 June that Burnham is facing pressure from some people to drop net zero targets. The newspaper said doing so could be "highly damaging on many levels."

In my view, the evidence from Carbon Brief and Green Alliance suggests a politician whose actions have been bolder than his words lately. But the gap between what he has done and what he has said is closing fast, as the real-world effects of climate change, from wildfires to deadly heatwaves, pile up.

The open question is whether Burnham will make the climate emergency a top priority as prime minister, or treat it as something he did locally as mayor. His 2038 net zero target, his bus electrification programme, and his opposition to fracking give him a solid base to build on. His silence on North Sea oil and gas and his apparent choice to pass over Miliband for the Treasury show where that ambition may stop. The question is whether the events of summer 2026, with thousands dead, harvests failing, and moorlands burning, will push him further or leave him where he is.