Fewer Australians are smoking than ever before. Daily tobacco smoking among Australians aged 14 and above dropped to 5.6% in 2025, according to the AIHW National Drug Strategy Household Survey The Guardian. That is down from 8.3% in the previous survey in 2022–23. The federal government had set a goal of getting below 10% by 2025, so Australia has beaten that target well ahead of schedule. The next goal is 5% or less by 2030.

The survey ran from June to December 2025 and gathered responses from over 17,500 people aged 14 and over. It is the largest survey of its kind in Australia The Guardian. The earlier 2022–23 version had over 21,000 participants AIHW.

Use of nicotine in general has gone down too. The share of Australians using any nicotine product fell to 15.2% in 2025, down from 17.4% in 2022–23 The Guardian. Vaping rates have levelled off.

Cancer Council Australia CEO Jacinta Reddan pointed out that more than two-thirds of Australians aged 14 and above have never smoked, the highest share on record The Guardian. The broader context here is a generational shift. Young people are picking up the habit far less often than they used to. Among men aged 18–24, daily smoking fell from 24.5% to 6.9%. Among women the same age, it fell from 23.5% to 5.0% AIHW.

But there is a catch. The illicit tobacco market, selling cigarettes and tobacco outside legal channels, is growing fast. Thirty-four percent of smokers said they had recently used illicit tobacco in 2025, more than double the 16.7% in 2022–23 The Guardian. Twenty-two percent of smokers said they had bought branded illicit tobacco in the previous three months. These are products sold without the plain packaging and health warning labels that Australian law requires. Of those buyers, 57% said they bought it from a licensed tobacconist.

This matters for public health policy. Australia keeps tobacco prices high through taxes to discourage smoking, and it requires plain packaging with graphic health warnings. But those rules only work if shops actually follow them. The fact that most illicit tobacco is being bought at licensed shops suggests the problem is not just an underground black market but also shops that are not enforcing the rules they are supposed to follow.

There is also a fairness issue. Australians with a mental health condition were twice as likely to smoke daily as those without one AIHW. Australians with disability reported higher daily smoking (14% compared with 8.7%) and higher lifetime smoking (51% compared with 37%) AIHW. These gaps suggest the overall decline may not be reaching everyone equally.

The AIHW hosts an official data-collection page for the 2025 survey AIHW. The 2022–2023 version included a dedicated section on tobacco and e-cigarettes and vapes AIHW.

With the 2025 rate at 5.6%, Australia's 2030 goal of 5% or less looks within reach. Whether the country can close that final gap depends on tackling the illicit tobacco supply and addressing the higher smoking rates among people with mental health conditions and disabilities. The levelling off of vaping rates adds another unknown to the picture, though its long-term effect on quitting smoking is still an open question.