The United States and Iran have been fighting for seven straight days as of July 18, 2026. US strikes are hitting Iranian targets further north inside the country, and a US naval blockade is blocking off the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that about one-fifth of the world's seaborne oil passes through. Crude oil prices have jumped 13% in a week and are heading toward $100 a barrel. The New York Times

The current round of fighting started when an Iranian attack killed two Americans, which prompted the US to launch strikes against Iran. The New York Times The week-long exchange of fire has largely undone a truce that had held during the previous month. Reuters

The military campaign, called Operation Epic Fury, originally launched at 1:15 a.m. EST under Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's direction, targeting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a powerful branch of Iran's military. Defense.gov Hegseth described the operation's goals as "laser-focused." After an initial phase and a temporary truce, the US resumed military strikes against Iran on Monday, July 13. WWLP-22News Al Jazeera reported that the US bombed Iranian cities in that wave, with the Hormuz standoff intensifying. Al Jazeera

Iran responded by escalating attacks on US bases in Gulf states and warned of further incidents in the strait. Reuters Oil tankers traveling through the Strait of Hormuz came under attack the same day. Reuters

On the naval front, the US reimposed a blockade on Iranian ports, effective early Wednesday, July 15, over Tehran's attacks on shipping. AP News President Donald Trump stated the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would be reinstated following a weekend of strikes from both sides. MarketWatch The same day, the US disabled an Iranian ship. AP News

The strike campaign broadened geographically. AP News reported on July 15 that the US intensified strikes targeting Iran, hitting targets further north than in previous days. AP News Reuters, citing US officials, reported that strikes targeted Iranian air defenses, coastal radar sites, and other military infrastructure, strengthening Trump's options for further escalation. Reuters

By Thursday, July 16, the two sides were exchanging intensifying fire, with Reuters reporting that Iran warned the Strait of Hormuz was a "red line" and that Tehran would "resist until the end." Reuters A separate dispute over the release of an American held by Iran remained unresolved. Reuters ILTV News reported on July 19 that the conflict had entered a "dangerous new phase," with a stalemate over the Strait of Hormuz. ILTV News

A diplomatic thread has also surfaced: CNN reported on July 18 that the US and Iran had reached an agreement to end fighting in Lebanon, though the broader confrontation continued without pause. CNN

What's Happening to Oil Prices

The oil market has been moving in one direction: up. Crude prices settled nearly 5% higher on July 7 after Trump threatened fresh strikes. Reuters Brent crude, a widely used benchmark price for oil, rose above $76 a barrel on July 8 for the first time in two weeks. Al Jazeera As the mutual strikes ramped, oil prices climbed 13% over a single week, with MarketWatch reporting prices could head above $100 a barrel. MarketWatch US oil prices had previously been holding above $110 a barrel earlier in the conflict cycle before easing. MarketWatch

The supply backdrop gives the blockade outsized leverage. Persian Gulf oil exports reached roughly 16 million barrels a day in June 2026, an increase of 6.5 million barrels a day that had been helping bring prices down. The New York Times That volume now has to pass through a chokepoint that is under active US blockade and Iranian retaliation.

What This Means for You

The broader context here is that when a fifth of the world's seaborne oil has to pass through a waterway that is now blocked, no amount of reduced demand elsewhere can make up for that missing supply. Think of it like a highway where one in five trucks delivering fuel to gas stations has to pass through a single tunnel, and that tunnel is now shut down. For consumers, the effect shows up as higher gasoline and diesel prices at the pump. For investors, the question is whether the current 13% weekly surge is a temporary fear-driven spike that reverses with the next truce, or the start of a lasting supply shortage. The answer depends entirely on how long the Hormuz blockade stays in place and whether Iran follows through on its threat to treat the strait as a red line. Both sides have signaled escalation, not de-escalation, and the Lebanon agreement reported by CNN does not extend to the waters where the oil supply chain sits.

Reuters reported that US officials characterized the strikes as expanding the president's escalation options, not narrowing them. That framing, combined with the geographic broadening of strike targets further north into Iran, suggests the campaign is in an expansion phase rather than approaching a negotiated off-ramp. The unresolved American detainee dispute adds another friction point that could delay any diplomatic resolution.

In my view, the key things to watch are tanker traffic through Hormuz, any change in the blockade's enforcement area, and whether Brent crude approaches that $100 level cited by MarketWatch. Each additional day of blockade drains the oil reserves of the refiners most dependent on Gulf crude. And the longer the conflict drags on, the more likely it is that higher oil prices stop being a temporary reaction and become the new normal across contracts stretching months ahead.