US forces struck Iran for the eighth night in a row on July 18, 2026. The broader campaign started on February 28 with US and Israeli military action (Britannica). The latest strikes began at 6pm Eastern Time, after a full week of nightly back-and-forth attacks between the two countries (Al Jazeera). Israel also carried out attacks on Gaza and Lebanon on the same date.

Oil markets have reacted in stages. In June, when fighting flared over a weekend, the price of Brent crude (a key oil benchmark used worldwide) jumped more than 4% to above $97 per barrel. WTI, the US oil benchmark, rose by a similar amount to above $95 (Yahoo Finance). Prices then fell to $93.09 for Brent on June 5 — down about 2% — as traders briefly bet on a possible peace deal (Reuters).

That optimism didn't last. Oil rose 2% to a one-month high on July 15 after strikes hit energy targets and disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that normally carries about a fifth of all oil used worldwide (Reuters). The Guardian reported that crude prices hit a four-year high on July 14 (The Guardian). By July 16, prices stayed near their highest since mid-June as Iran reportedly asked Yemen for support (CNBC). On July 17, oil rose again on renewed fighting and threats to close the Red Sea, another key shipping route (Reuters).

The supply situation has gotten worse as the fighting has escalated. Reuters reported on July 15 that oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz had dropped below half of what it was before the war. The same report said oil prices could top $110 per barrel in late 2026 if the disruptions continue.

There was a brief moment of hope on July 10, when oil prices dipped as traders guessed that shipping might improve despite the fighting (Reuters). That drop was fully erased the next week when strikes hit energy infrastructure again.

US stock-market futures barely moved on July 9 amid the Middle East fighting, though the Wall Street Journal noted that oil prices rose that day (WSJ). The WSJ live coverage page for July 20, 2026 was not found by search; the closest available dates were July 13, July 9, and July 6.

The broader context here is that two of the world's most important oil shipping routes are in trouble at the same time. The Strait of Hormuz is running at less than half its normal capacity. The Red Sea closure threat adds a second problem to a route that already had ships going around it and paying higher insurance rates. Think of it like a highway where two major exits are partially blocked at once — the traffic doesn't just slow down, it fundamentally reroutes. When that happens to oil, the extra cost baked into prices stops being a temporary blip and becomes a permanent feature.

The $110-per-barrel prediction deserves some doubt for two reasons. First, it assumes the current pace of strikes keeps up through the fall, and wars rarely follow a straight line. The brief truce before this round of fighting, and the July 10 price dip when traders got optimistic about shipping, both show how fast the mood can shift on a single news headline. Second, even with reduced oil flow, there's no hard evidence yet of shortages severe enough to justify $110 oil right now. Today's price of $93–$97 already includes a big cushion for risk.

The practical question for everyday consumers is whether prices stay in the $93–$97 range. When oil holds at these levels, it takes about four to six weeks for that cost to show up at the gas pump. That means the July fighting will likely push up gasoline and diesel prices in August and September — right when the Federal Reserve (the US central bank) is deciding whether prices for goods and services have risen slowly enough to justify cutting interest rates. A late-summer spike in energy costs would make that decision much harder.

The scope of the conflict matters too. With Israel fighting in Gaza and Lebanon at the same time, and Iran asking Yemen for help, the risk of the war spreading is real. Each new front makes it more likely that Hormuz traffic drops further or the Red Sea becomes fully closed to commercial shipping. That worst-case scenario — unlikely but very costly if it happens — is what traders are quietly pricing into oil contracts, more than today's headline price.