Brent crude, the benchmark price for much of the world's oil, closed around $91 a barrel on July 21, 2026. That same day, the United States completed its eleventh straight night of air strikes against Iran, and threats from a group called the Houthis forced oil-carrying ships to turn around in the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that roughly a fifth of the world's oil passes through. Bloomberg

The fighting has escalated quickly. Iran attacked US targets in Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, and Oman on July 16 and 17, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a research organization that tracks conflicts. ISW described this as an effort by Iran to impose costs on US allies. ISW Iran then launched a ballistic missile at a US base in Saudi Arabia, the first Iranian attack on Saudi territory in nearly three months. ISW On July 17 and 18, Iran conducted three ballistic missile strikes against Muwaffaq al Salti Air Base in Jordan. ISW

US Central Command (CENTCOM) stated it had completed its eleventh consecutive evening of strikes against Iran, reported late July 21 into early July 22. Al Jazeera US forces had expanded strikes to possible missile launch sites in northwestern and central Iran as of July 19–20. ISW Iran also attacked at least two vessels during the same period, per ISW's July 20 update. ISW

The Houthis, an armed group in Yemen aligned with Iran, declared on July 13 that they had ended a period of reduced fighting, calling attacks on them "blatant aggression." Reuters By July 22, Bloomberg reported that Houthi threats were forcing tanker U-turns as Iran choked the Strait of Hormuz, with key Middle Eastern oil shipping routes facing disruption as threats mounted. Bloomberg

Oil's price through this conflict has been steep but not a straight line upward. On March 1, Reuters reported oil jumped 10% on the initial Iran conflict, with analysts flagging a potential spike to $100 a barrel. Reuters By June 2, prices had settled back to roughly a 1% gain in volatile trade amid uncertainty over US-Iran talks. Reuters A June 22 Bloomberg report showed that Iran shipped 30 million barrels of oil in the week before a US waiver, meaning supply briefly flowed before the current military escalation. Bloomberg

The interim deal between the US and Iran is over, as Trump stated on July 7, when the truce buckled under fresh hostilities. Reuters Oil climbed over 4% to near a six-week high by July 10 as conflict threatened key oil transit routes. Reuters On July 21, Bloomberg reported oil edged higher as Trump cooled prospects for talks with Iran. Bloomberg

Pakistan's foreign minister spoke by phone with Iran's top diplomat and urged de-escalation on both sides, per AP News. AP News Iran claimed it targeted US assets in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan during the July hostilities. CBS News

The broader context here is a market where the demand for oil has already taken a big hit from the conflict itself. Bloomberg reported on April 14 that the Iran war wiped out global oil demand growth for that year. Bloomberg Think of oil prices like a seesaw: less demand should push prices down, but less supply pushes them up. Right now, the supply side is being disrupted in a way you can see with your own eyes: ships are physically turning around in the Strait of Hormuz. That means the $91 price tag reflects real, observable disruption, not just market nerves.

The $100-per-barrel prediction analysts floated back in March hasn't materialized yet, but prices are getting close. What makes today different from the March spike is how long this has gone on: eleven straight nights of strikes, the interim deal declared dead, the Houthis back in the fight, and confirmed attacks on ships. Any one of those alone would worry the market. All of them happening at once is why oil stays high, even though the drop in demand from the war itself would normally help cap prices.