More than 35,000 Victorian teachers, principals and support staff were expected to gather in Melbourne on 23 July 2026 to strike after rejecting a pay deal from the Allan Labor government (The Guardian). The strike — a 24-hour walkout across the state — was confirmed by the Australian Education Union after members voted down the government's pay and conditions offer (AEU Victorian Branch). The stoppage was set for Thursday, 23 July, and includes an ongoing ban on unpaid overtime (AEU Victorian Branch).

The disagreement is about money. The union wants a 35% pay rise, saying it is needed to fix staff shortages in public schools (AEU Victorian Branch). The government offered 28% (7NEWS Melbourne). Education Minister Ben Carroll released a statement outlining the new deal to try to stop the strike (Sky News Australia). The union was not persuaded.

This is the second big strike by Victorian teachers this year. More than 35,000 walked off the job in March 2026, the first strike of its kind in 13 years (AFR.

In my view, the fact this still isn't settled four months later tells you the government either misjudged how determined the union is, or it has hit a budget limit it won't go past publicly. The union's strongest argument is a simple comparison: an experienced Victorian teacher earns $118,063 in 2026, while an experienced teacher in New South Wales earns $133,422 (AEU Victorian Branch). That is a gap of about $15,000, and it makes the government's 28% offer harder to sell.

Meanwhile, at a summit in Manila, Foreign Minister Penny Wong said Australia was not ruling out stepping up joint patrols of the South China Sea, pointing to "destabilising" missile testing in the region (The Guardian). China's foreign ministry spokesman fired back, urging "relevant countries to stop stirring up tension and inciting confrontation" (The Guardian).

The two countries have had a mixed year. In April 2026, Wong announced in Beijing that China had agreed to cooperate with Australia on jet fuel exports (Reuters). In July 2026, China's foreign ministry said Australia was not a party to the South China Sea disputes (Reuters.

The broader context here is two Labor governments under pressure on very different fronts. In Victoria, the Allan government faces a union that has already shut down schools once this year and is holding firm on its 35% claim. The 28% offer is large by recent standards, but the union can point to what teachers earn in NSW and ask why Victorian teachers get less. On the international side, Wong's talk of joint patrols signals Australia wants a stronger military presence in the South China Sea, right when Beijing is saying Canberra has no business there. The jet fuel deal in April opened a working economic channel; Wong's comments in Manila test how far that channel stretches when security interests clash.

Two Labor governments, two sets of talks, two very different pressures. The Allan government needs a wages deal that keeps the budget in check without triggering a third strike. Wong needs to hold Australia's regional security posture under AUKUS — the defence pact between Australia, the UK and the US — and its Southeast Asian partnerships without collapsing the dialogue Beijing has tentatively reopened. Both have very little room to back down.