On Sunday night, July 26, 2026, powerful figures inside Victoria's Labor Party held an emergency meeting and agreed that Premier Jacinta Allan no longer has the support of most of her fellow Labor lawmakers. This sets the stage for a challenge to her leadership just four months before the state election in November (The Guardian; ABC AM). The Age called it an "extraordinary" and "emergency" meeting of Labor chiefs (The Age).

Allan has publicly rejected the pressure. She said she is "not going anywhere" in late July 2026 (ABC News). Attorney General Sonya Kilkenny, a key Allan supporter, called the leadership talk "idle gossip" on July 26 (The Guardian).

Who Might Replace Her?

Deputy Premier Ben Carroll is seen as Allan's most likely replacement. But Carroll told colleagues he would only run for the job if Allan stepped aside first, rather than actively challenging her (The Guardian). He said something similar publicly on June 15, 2026, when he ruled out a challenge and said he supported Allan "to be a world-class premier and get re-elected in her own right" (The Guardian).

What Might Happen Next?

One option discussed at the Sunday meeting was for a group of ministers to tell Allan on Monday, July 27, that she had lost her colleagues' support. The hope was that she would step down before a formal vote at Tuesday's caucus meeting, the first day of parliament after the winter break (The Guardian).

If Allan refuses to step aside and forces a vote, things get more complicated. Under rules introduced after the chaotic federal Labor leadership changes years ago, the entire Victorian Labor membership — everyday party members, not just lawmakers — would also get a vote. That process takes weeks. Those rules have never been used in Victoria (The Guardian). A weeks-long vote four months before an election would create a lot of uncertainty for Labor's campaign.

Why Is This Happening?

The push against Allan has been building since before the June 2026 winter break. It is driven by poor polling, low personal approval ratings for Allan, growing support for the right-wing One Nation party, and concerns about how she handled organised crime infiltrating a massive infrastructure program called the Big Build through the CFMEU construction union (The Guardian).

The Big Build is a $100 billion infrastructure program (The Guardian). Allan oversaw it as minister for transport infrastructure before she became premier. She has rejected calls for a royal commission — a major public investigation with wide-ranging powers — into organised crime infiltration of the program (The Guardian).

Allan had been trying to get ahead of the corruption issue. The Sydney Morning Herald reported on July 23 that she planned to announce a plan on Monday, July 27, to root out Big Build corruption and target organised crime, and that she hoped it would save her leadership (SMH). Whether that announcement survives the political maneuvering now underway is an open question.

How Long Has This Been Going On?

The pressure on Allan has been visible for months. On March 19, 2026, she dismissed leadership speculation as "scallywag" behaviour, and senior Labor MPs publicly declared their support the same day (ABC News). In early June, Labor MPs reviewed increasingly negative election odds, which reignited speculation (The Age). On June 9, Allan vowed to "see it through" (ABC News) and dismissed the rumblings as "navel-gazing" amid a surge in One Nation support (The Age). She warned of the "chaos" that would result from a One Nation government in Victoria (The Age). Prime Minister Anthony Albanese endorsed Allan in approximately June 2026, saying she was the only person capable of leading Victoria (Sky News Australia/Facebook).

How Allan Became Premier

Allan became the 49th premier of Victoria in September 2023, elected unopposed after Daniel Andrews resigned (The Guardian). Carroll became deputy premier at the same time (The Guardian). If Carroll becomes leader, he would immediately call for a royal commission into organised crime and the Big Build, work to resolve the public school teacher pay dispute, and try to improve the party's economic credentials and relationship with the business community (The Guardian).

The broader picture is a party running out of time. Allan's biggest weakness, the Big Build corruption issue, is also the one most personally tied to her: she ran the program as minister before becoming premier. Carroll's promise to call a royal commission is the exact opposite of Allan's refusal to do so. And the agreement among faction leaders that she has lost caucus support, reached in a meeting The Age called "extraordinary," suggests the numbers inside the party have shifted decisively since June, when Allan's allies could still publicly defend her. The untested membership ballot rules add another layer of uncertainty: if Allan refuses to step aside and forces a vote, the process would take weeks that Labor cannot spare with an election in November. A party that once replaced Daniel Andrews and installed Allan unopposed now faces the prospect of a long, membership-wide vote under rules that were designed to prevent exactly the kind of behind-the-scenes maneuvering happening now.