Jacinta Allan has resigned as Premier of Victoria. Her deputy, Ben Carroll, is set to take over as Labor leader without anyone challenging him for the job (The Guardian). Carroll confirmed on Monday 27 July 2026 that he would put his hand up. On the morning of 28 July, Allan said Carroll would have her "unqualified support".

A group of Labor ministers and MPs met Allan on 27 July to tell her she should step down. She said no at first (ABC News; SBS News). Within a day, she changed her mind.

A few problems had been piling up for months. Allan's polling numbers were bad and voters were not warming to her. Support for One Nation was growing, pulling people away from Labor's voter base. And there were allegations of corruption on the Big Build — Victoria's massive infrastructure program that builds roads, train lines and removes level crossings. The government could not shake off the scandal. Back in March 2026, Allan told parliament she was "no longer the responsible minister" when asked about the construction industry (Parliament of Victoria Hansard). That attempt to step away from the problem, four months before she fell, did not work.

Allan's poor approval ratings were recorded at the time of the leadership challenge (The Australian). Those numbers, on top of the Big Build allegations, gave her critics inside the party the chance they needed.

The timing was rough. Victoria's state election is about four months away. Because the election is so close, Allan quitting does not trigger a separate byelection — a smaller vote to fill a single vacant seat (The Conversation). That meant the party had to sort out the leadership fast, or risk heading into an election campaign looking disorganised.

The party rules made speed essential. Under Victorian Labor's rules, if two people compete for the leadership, both the elected MPs and ordinary party members get a vote. That process can take up to six weeks. Six weeks from late July would have used up almost all the time left before the election. By stepping aside rather than forcing a vote, Allan gave Carroll a smooth handover and saved the party from a long internal fight with the election looming.

Carroll is understood to support a royal commission into the Big Build corruption allegations. A royal commission is the most powerful type of public inquiry in Australia — it can force people to give evidence and hand over documents. He is not alone in backing one. Environment Minister Enver Erdogan told reporters on 28 July that there was a "case for change" and that he supported a royal commission into the Big Build allegations. With the incoming premier and senior ministers on the same page, an inquiry looks likely.

Former health minister Mary-Anne Thomas, who said in April 2026 that she would retire at the November election and step down from her ministerial role (Premier of Victoria), had said she would not support a move against Allan. She stuck to that. It was not enough to save the Premier.

The broader picture here is a government that lost control of its own story. The Big Build was supposed to be Labor's proudest achievement in Victoria — big infrastructure delivered at a scale no one had done before. Instead, the corruption allegations turned the government's signature project into its biggest weakness. Allan's attempt in March to distance herself from the construction portfolio suggests she saw the danger early. She could not outrun it.

A royal commission, if it goes ahead, would be running during the November election campaign. That cuts both ways. It tells voters the new leadership takes the allegations seriously and is willing to put its own side's flagship project under the microscope. But it also keeps the story in the news throughout the campaign, giving the Coalition and Greens plenty to talk about. Carroll has decided that doing nothing is riskier than holding an inquiry. That call will be tested quickly.

For the Coalition, the change is a mixed bag. They lose the chance to campaign against Allan's poor approval ratings, which were hurting Labor's vote. But they now face a new Premier who can sell himself as a fresh start, someone willing to launch an inquiry into his own party's infrastructure program. The opposition's job now is to argue that Carroll was part of the government that created the problem he now wants to investigate. Whether that argument works with voters in November is something the polls will start to answer almost immediately.

The Guardian's reporting on Allan's resignation carried a "More details to follow" note, meaning the story was still developing at the time of publication. How exactly Carroll takes over, when a royal commission might be announced, and what a cabinet reshuffle looks like with four months to an election — those are the immediate questions for Victorian Labor.