Opposition Leader Angus Taylor's approval rating dropped from minus-1 in June to minus-12 in July 2026, according to the Guardian Essential poll. The sharpest losses were among men and middle-aged voters. The poll of 1,060 voters, published on July 29, 2026, also showed One Nation's primary vote at 25% (down one point), the Coalition's at 22% (down one point), and Labor's up one point to 31% (The Guardian).

Here is what those terms mean. A "primary vote" is the percentage of voters who put a party first on their ballot. A "net approval rating" is the share who approve of a leader minus the share who disapprove. If 36% approve and 48% disapprove, the net rating is minus-12.

All of the vote shifts in this poll were small enough to fall within the margin of error, meaning they are not statistically certain on their own. But the broader trend is clear. One Nation's primary vote peaked at 28% in May and has been slipping since, while the Coalition has not picked up the voters leaving One Nation. Taylor's approval fell three points in July, and disapproval rose seven points.

The drop in Taylor's approval was not even across groups. Among men, his net rating fell 16 points. Among women, it fell 4 points. The biggest decline was among voters aged 35–54, where his net approval crashed 20 points. Voters aged 18–34 dropped 13 points. No group in the poll showed improvement for Taylor.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's numbers were also negative. His net approval stood at minus-14, with 38% approving and 52% disapproving. This was the fourth month in a row that more than half of voters disapproved of him. So both of Australia's major-party leaders are unpopular at the same time.

The issue driving voter sentiment most is cost of living. Nearly 80% of people surveyed said inflation and cost of living are among the most important issues facing the country. The Labor government got its worst score here: 64% rated its handling of cost of living as poor, and only 16% rated it as good. Medicare and health was named by 50% of respondents as a top issue, followed by crime at 42% and immigration at 35%.

Labor did better in other areas. On Medicare and health, 39% rated the government's performance as good and 30% as poor, the only major issue where more people were positive than negative. On crime, the numbers flipped: only 22% said Labor was doing a good job, while 50% said it was doing poorly. The government's weakest score was on the issue voters care about most.

The poll also asked about AI infrastructure. Fewer than a third of Australians said they would be happy to have an AI datacentre built in their local area. Alongside cost of living, this points to a public that is uneasy about big economic and technological changes.

The broader picture is that both major parties are losing support to One Nation while already in a weak position. One Nation's 25% primary vote is down from its May high of 28%, but that dip has not helped the Coalition, which lost a point instead of gaining one. A 22% primary vote for a major party is very low. It suggests that the people voting for One Nation are not just protesting temporarily and will return to the Coalition later. Instead, the conservative vote is splitting in a way that looks lasting.

For Labor, the situation is different. The government's primary vote rose to 31%, and health, where Labor is strongest, is the second-biggest issue for voters. But cost of living is the number one issue, and the government's rating there is very poor. Only 16% think Labor is handling it well, on an issue that 80% of voters say matters most. That is a problem no amount of good health policy can fix. Four straight months of majority disapproval for Albanese suggests that frustration over the economy is becoming a lasting judgment on the Prime Minister himself.

Taylor may be in the weaker position of the two. His approval is falling faster than the Prime Minister's, his party's vote share is shrinking, and a third party is holding above 25%. The Coalition cannot win elections from a 22% base. The real question is not whether One Nation voters will come back to the Coalition on their own, because the polls since May give no sign of that. The question is whether the Coalition can offer policies that draw those voters back without pushing away moderate voters who already left.

Neither leader has a clear path forward in these numbers. The poll describes a country where voters are unhappy with everyone in charge and increasingly willing to look beyond the two main parties.