Politics

Labour now beats National on the economy, survey says

Hana SinclairPublished 17h ago4 min readBased on 6 sources
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Labour now beats National on the economy, survey says

Labour is now seen as the party best able to handle all five of the things New Zealanders worry about most, according to a July 2026 survey by the polling company Ipsos. That includes the economy, where Labour has moved ahead of National for the first time in the survey's recent history.

The survey ran from 8 to 14 July 2026 and asked 1,002 New Zealanders aged 18 and older to name the three biggest issues facing the country and which parties they think would handle them best. The credibility interval — roughly the margin of error — was ±3.5 percentage points. RNZ reported the findings on 30 July 2026; the survey is attributed to Ipsos, with graphics credited as "Supplied / Ipsos Issues Monitor" (RNZ).

Cost of living was easily the biggest worry at 62%. Healthcare and hospitals came next at 38%, then the economy at 34%. Housing was fourth at 22%. Unemployment made it back into the top five at 20% for the first time since late 2020. That is a change from earlier in the year, when the 31st Issues Monitor (February 2026) found concern about unemployment easing among under-35s (Ipsos).

Labour now leads on 15 of the top 20 issues the survey measures. National leads on just one: crime and law and order. The two major parties are rated equal on defence and foreign affairs. The Greens are still the party most trusted on climate change and the environment, and Te Pāti Māori is most trusted on issues facing Māori.

The biggest shift is on the economy. Labour went from 28% in May to 34% in July. National dropped from 33% to 30% over the same period. That change lines up with a broader slide in the government's standing. The average rating of government performance fell to 4.1 out of 10, down from 4.2 in May. Fewer than a quarter of respondents rated the government positively, meaning they gave it 7 to 10 out of 10. That was down from 27% in May.

National's perceived ability to manage healthcare dropped to its lowest point since February 2024. Labour's rating on the same issue hit its highest level in nearly five years. That is a sharp turnaround from 2025, when Labour was seen as most capable on three of the top five issues in the June 2025 monitor, and four of the top five in the March 2026 (32nd) monitor (Ipsos).

Fuel and petrol prices dropped from the fourth most important issue to seventh equal. Ipsos puts this down to the ceasefire announced in the US-Iran conflict during the survey period. Race relations and racism registered at 6%, placing 13th equal — up from 16th equal in the May survey.

The 31st Issues Monitor, published in February 2026, found the government rating had bounced back from a record low (Ipsos). The July result suggests that bounce-back has not lasted.

The broader context here is a pattern that any governing party would recognise. When an incumbent government is presiding over a cost-of-living squeeze and rising unemployment, voters tend to lose confidence in its economic management, whatever policies it is actually pursuing. National has been narrowed to a single-issue lead on crime, leaving it with little to point to across the rest of the survey's issue-by-issue ratings. The open question is whether the slide in perceived competence on the economy and healthcare reflects actual outcomes, or a shift in mood that could settle or turn around before the next election.

What gives the result weight is the trend across the last three surveys. Labour has gone from leading on three of the top five issues in June 2025, to four of five in March 2026, to all five in July. That is a steady direction over three quarters, not a one-off spike. National has gone the other way, from holding leads across several issues to just one. Whether that is voters judging the government's first-term record or Labour simply benefiting from voters growing tired of the current government is the question the next survey will start to answer.