National support hits lowest point as other parties gain
National's support has dropped to 28.7 percent in the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll — the lowest under leader Christopher Luxon. The poll was conducted from 2 to 9 July and released on Tuesday, after the political parties held their annual conferences.
Labour leads at 34 percent. New Zealand First rose to 11.5 percent — its best result in this polling series since 2017. The Opportunity Party more than doubled its support to 4.7 percent, just short of the 5 percent needed to enter Parliament. The Greens are at 10.3 percent and ACT at 7.8 percent.
On these numbers, the government — made up of National, NZ First and ACT — would have 61 seats in a 120-seat Parliament. The opposition parties (Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori) would have 59 seats. That's a majority of just two seats.
Two things could change this. National currently wins 43 seats by winning local electorates. If it wins more than 36 of those seats, something called an overhang happens: extra seats are added to Parliament, making the government's lead bigger. Te Pāti Māori won six of the seven Māori electorates last time and could close the gap if it wins more seats this time.
The other thing to watch is the Opportunity Party. It's now just 0.3 points below the 5 percent threshold. If it crosses that line, it reshapes how all the other parties' seats are counted.
On preferred prime minister, Chris Hipkins leads at 23.9 percent. Christopher Luxon is at 20 percent. Winston Peters is at 13.2 percent. Fifteen percent of people didn't pick a preferred prime minister.
When asked if the country is heading in the right direction, 34.7 percent said yes. Just over 46 percent said no.
Other recent polls from different companies show a similar pattern: Labour and National both weaker than before, NZ First stronger, and the Opportunity Party gaining ground. The specific numbers vary between polling companies, but the direction is the same.
The government's two-seat majority means there's almost no room for surprises. A byelection loss or a defection could flip the numbers. What happens with electorate seats and the Opportunity Party reaching 5 percent could reshape the whole picture.
