US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a CNBC interview on August 4, 2026 that the United States and Iran could reach a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz "today or tomorrow" — meaning Tuesday or Wednesday — with "freedom of movement" through the waterway. CNBC

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow strip of water between Iran and Oman. About one-fifth of all the world's oil passes through it. When it's blocked, oil gets more expensive, and that can push up the price of gasoline, heating fuel, and many other things people buy.

As of August 4, no final deal had been reached. ABC News Bessent's comments, reported across multiple outlets including the New York Post and Forbes, amount to a signal that negotiations are in an advanced stage, not a confirmation that an agreement is signed.

This is not the first time in 2026 that a Hormuz reopening has appeared imminent. On June 14, global stocks rose and oil prices slid after President Trump said an Iran deal had been signed. Reuters That agreement was expected to reopen the blockaded strait and extend a ceasefire for 60 days. The next day, US energy shares slumped as the deal lowered the perceived risk of supply disruption, sending oil prices lower. Reuters Reuters noted at the time that the deal offered relief to oil markets, though risks around Hormuz remained. Reuters

The fact that Bessent is again signaling an imminent deal roughly seven weeks after the June agreement suggests the earlier arrangement either failed to hold or did not fully restore navigation through the strait. His specific language about "freedom of movement" implies the prospective deal would go beyond a ceasefire to restore commercial shipping through a chokepoint that carries roughly a fifth of global oil supply.

The backdrop to these negotiations has been an escalating US sanctions campaign against Iran's oil revenue. Sanctions are penalties that governments use to cut off a country's access to money or trade. On July 29, the Treasury took action against multiple shadow fleet vessels — ships operating outside normal shipping channels — responsible for transporting millions of barrels of Iranian crude. US Treasury Earlier, on July 10, Treasury identified that Lavasani Exchange held hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of foreign currency on behalf of its sanctioned Iranian bank. US Treasury

The sanctions pressure has been sustained across multiple fronts. In May, Bessent said the "Economic Fury" sanctions campaign had left the Iranian regime "desperate for cash." US Treasury In the same month, he said the Treasury had deprived the regime of revenue for its weapons programs, terrorist proxies, and nuclear ambitions. US Treasury In January, Bessent announced sanctions against architects of Iran's crackdown on peaceful protests. US Treasury

The pattern is familiar to people who follow oil markets: heavy sanctions on Iranian oil revenue, followed by signs of a diplomatic breakthrough, followed by a deal that is fragile or only partially carried out. The June episode produced a clear market reaction — stocks up, oil down, energy stocks sold off — only for the situation to evidently require another round of negotiation.

The broader context here is that anyone watching these markets has to decide whether Bessent's August 4 comments mean it's time to act or whether the June precedent argues for waiting until a signed agreement is confirmed. A deal that restores full commercial shipping through Hormuz would directly lower the risk premium built into oil prices. How long the arrangement lasts matters just as much. The June deal's 60-day ceasefire was always temporary, and any new agreement will be scrutinized for whether it includes longer-term enforcement or verification. Treasury's concurrent actions against shadow fleet vessels suggest the sanctions remain in place even as talks continue, which could mean the deal is less about lifting pressure and more about reshaping it.

For everyday consumers, the stakes are direct. Oil prices feed into the cost of gasoline and a wide range of goods. A lasting drop in oil would help keep inflation in check, which affects whether the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates. A failed deal would bring back the fear premium that has periodically pushed prices higher. Bessent's choice of a live TV interview to signal the timeline suggests the administration wants markets to prepare for a deal before any formal announcement, possibly to reduce volatility. Whether that works depends entirely on whether Iran signs on in the window Bessent identified.