Maine's 2026 U.S. Senate race may come down to one group of voters: Maine women, NPR reported August 7. The race is one of the most closely watched in the country, and women voters could decide who wins.

The election is set for November 3, 2026. Republican Susan Collins is running for a sixth term. She is the only Republican representing a state that Donald Trump lost in the 2024 presidential election, according to NBC News. The New York Times, in a polling page published August 7, called her the last Republican in New England's congressional delegation.

Democrats nominated Troy Jackson, a figure in Maine state politics, to challenge Collins, NBC News reported July 25. Jackson's campaign posted on Facebook that in 101 days "we will defeat Susan Collins and reclaim our Senate."

Polling has tightened in Jackson's favor. A survey reported by WGME on August 6 found Jackson with a slight lead over Collins. Newsweek, also reporting August 6, noted that Jackson has led three polls in a row since becoming the Democratic nominee.

A University of New Hampshire survey, published July 21, measured how voters feel about Collins. An approval rating shows whether more people view a politician favorably or unfavorably. Collins had a +73 rating among Republicans, meaning most Republican voters like her. Among independents, she had a -28 rating, meaning more independents view her unfavorably. Among Democrats, she had a -84 rating.

Independents make up the largest group of Maine voters. That is why both campaigns are focused on suburban and rural women who split their tickets. Ticket-splitting means voting for candidates from different parties in the same election.

Abortion is also shaping the race. The 19th reported July 13 that the contest is resetting around reproductive rights. Democrats say Collins's actions in the Senate contradict her stated support for reproductive rights. The Democratic argument is aimed at women voters who have said abortion access motivates them to vote.

Collins has pointed to her legislative record and attendance. She cast her 10,000th consecutive Senate vote on June 5, 2026, according to her campaign website. Her campaign released a press release on July 28 promoting a new ad that highlights what it calls her long record of success, including never missing a vote. Her website states she has been recognized as one of the hardest-working members of Congress and is consistently ranked the most bipartisan senator. The site also lists legislative accomplishments in health care, the economy, small business support, education, national security, veterans, and older Americans.

Collins was born into a family with a strong tradition of public service and commitment to Maine, her campaign website states.

The broader context here is what those polling numbers reveal about Collins's challenge. Her strong support among Republicans gives her a firm base. But the -84 rating among Democrats leaves little room to win over those voters in a state where ticket-splitting has historically kept her in office. Independent voters, at -28 approval, are the battleground, and within that group, women are the voters both campaigns are fighting over most.

For Jackson, three straight polling leads since his nomination suggest Democratic voters have quickly rallied behind him. But the margin is small. The NPR report identifying women as the decisive group matches what The 19th found: Democrats are pushing the abortion-rights argument to win over undecided women, while Collins is counting on her experience as a five-term senator, her bipartisan reputation, and a turnout operation built over five prior Senate victories.

The race will be settled on November 3.