Luxon's leadership under pressure again as National MPs eye a possible challenge

Christopher Luxon's leadership of the National Party is under fresh pressure, with MPs making phone calls about a possible leadership change ahead of a caucus meeting at Parliament on Wednesday morning.

Backbenchers believe a change is achievable, according to the NZ Herald. The latest speculation was triggered by Luxon's announcement last Thursday that he would support an MMP referendum if National wins the election. MMP, New Zealand's voting system, is the mixed-member proportional system where voters get two votes — one for a local MP and one for a party — and seats in Parliament roughly match each party's share of the party vote.

The caucus is scheduled to meet at 9:30am on Wednesday, 12 August. It is unclear whether Luxon will call another confidence vote in himself, just four months after a previous one was triggered by media reports of a potential coup (RNZ). A confidence vote is a straightforward process: MPs vote on whether they still back the leader, and a simple majority determines the outcome.

RNZ analysis describes Luxon as a marked man heading into election year, under extraordinary pressure to improve National's fortunes as polls flatline (RNZ). The pressure is not new. In April, 1News reported that Luxon faced renewed leadership pressure from within the party due to poor polling, with National at 34% and Labour ahead (1News). A 1News poll shortly after showed Luxon drop 4 percentage points to 16% in the preferred prime minister rankings, his worst result (1News).

By June, polling showed Chris Hipkins overtaking Luxon in the preferred prime minister rankings, at 19.2% (up 2.1 points) versus Luxon's 19.1% (up 0.3 points) (NZ Herald). National MPs publicly backed Luxon after that poll, with one MP saying he "hasn't put a foot wrong" (NZ Herald.

Despite those numbers, a "poll of polls" analysis gave the left-leaning parliamentary Opposition bloc of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori just a 3.2% probability of being able to form government (NZ Herald).

Simon Bridges said talk of a leadership ticket with Luxon was "just chatter" but did not deny having discussed it with him (RNZ).

There is no obvious single challenger within the National caucus to replace Luxon, according to RNZ, but several names stand out (RNZ).

Finance Minister and deputy leader Nicola Willis is named as a potential successor, though her stock is seen as increasingly tied to Luxon over the term. Chris Bishop, who holds the Housing and Transport portfolios, was discussed during late-last-year coup chatter that amounted to nothing. Erica Stanford is widely considered a contender, having impressed as Education and Immigration minister, but lacks finance and economy experience. Senior MPs Simeon Brown, the party's campaign chair, and Mark Mitchell have been floated as more likely deputies than leaders (RNZ).

The broader context here is a party navigating a familiar tension between polling that, on the aggregate, still suggests National can form government, and a caucus nervous about the leader's personal standing with voters. The poll-of-polls finding that the left bloc has only a 3.2% chance of forming government cuts against the narrative of crisis, yet the preferred-prime minister gap opening between Hipkins and Luxon gives plotters their ammunition. The question for caucus on Wednesday is whether the MMP referendum announcement, which triggered the latest round of speculation, is a recoverable misstep or a signal that the leader's political instincts are no longer trusted by enough of his colleagues to carry them through an election campaign.