Forecasters Now See an 81% Chance of a Very Strong El Niño by Late 2026
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center now puts the probability of a "very strong" El Niño during October–December 2026 at 81%, with only a one-in-five chance the event stays below that threshold. The assessment, published August 10 in NOAA's ENSO evolution status and forecast bulletin, is the strongest language U.S. forecasters have used for the 2026 event so far. It lines up with the World Meteorological Organization's July 31 forecast that a strong El Niño was developing and would intensify through August–October.
El Niño is a recurring climate pattern driven by unusually warm surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Those warmer waters shift atmospheric circulation, which in turn disrupts weather patterns far beyond the Pacific. The opposite pattern, La Niña, involves cooler-than-normal Pacific waters. Together, these alternating phases make up what scientists call the ENSO cycle.
The forecast trajectory has sharpened quickly since early June. On June 2, the WMO's El Niño/La Niña Update indicated an 80% likelihood of an El Niño event during June–August 2026. By mid-June, NOAA forecasters were already predicting a 63% chance that sea surface temperatures in the Pacific's Niño-monitored region would exceed the 2.0°C anomaly mark — the conventional benchmark for a strong event. On July 9, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reported that El Niño conditions were already present and would strengthen through year's end, with a 97% probability of persisting through early spring 2027. The WMO separately forecast above-normal temperatures worldwide in connection with the intensifying event.
El Niño typically peaks between November and February. What stands out in this forecast cycle is how early both NOAA's dynamical models and the WMO's multi-model ensemble — two independent forecasting systems that simulate ocean and atmosphere physics — agree on a very strong outcome. When both assign such high probabilities to the upper intensity tier, the key question shifts from whether the event will be significant to how significant it will be, and where its impacts will be most disruptive.
Those impacts travel through what scientists call "teleconnections" — a mechanism by which Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies set off chain reactions in distant atmospheric circulation patterns. Think of it like a stone dropped in a pond: the ripple spreads outward, but what it looks like when it reaches shore depends on the local geography. A single oceanic event thus becomes a global weather risk factor.
The WMO has described El Niño as one of Earth's most influential climate patterns, capable of shifting rainfall, heat, drought, and storm activity across continents. Past major El Niño events have been linked to crop failures, wildfire risk, water shortages, stronger storms, and economic disruption. Those risks are not abstract this time. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization expects agricultural drought from the 2026 El Niño to hit hardest in the Sahel, across Southern Africa, and in South America. Central America and Southern Africa are expected to be among the regions hardest hit by food insecurity, according to Reuters reporting from August 6. In Sudan, El Niño-induced rainfall shortages in the rain-fed sorghum and millet belts of Gedaref and Sennar could worsen existing crop failures.
Agricultural exposure extends well beyond the Global South. Drought conditions associated with a "super" El Niño have been projected to delay crop plantings and reduce wheat yields in the United States, while hot weather linked to the event has already affected Asian crop production. El Niño events have historically led to major crop losses, food inflation, and increased food insecurity across parts of Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
The current ENSO cycle is also unfolding against an already warm baseline. The WMO reported that Western Europe experienced its hottest June on record in 2026, and separately published findings on ocean warming, marine heatwaves, and sea-level rise in early July. When you layer an El Niño on top of elevated background warming, the temperature anomalies in teleconnection regions — including those critical to staple grain production — are more likely to exceed what historical El Niño comparisons would predict.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has stated that El Niño forcing will likely continue to impact the contiguous United States heading into September. The WMO, under Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, has forecast significant shifts for the June–July–August 2026 season and has urged early action in light of the extreme weather the event is expected to produce.
The broader context here is that the convergence of NOAA's 81% very strong probability, the WMO's intensification forecast, and the FAO's geographically specific drought projections gives decision-makers a relatively narrow and well-defined risk window. There is a seasonal lag between Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies and their downstream agricultural impacts, which means the October–December peak period the models are now focusing on will translate into food system stress in the first and second quarters of 2027. Regions the FAO has flagged — the Sahel, Southern Africa, South America, Central America — and secondary teleconnection zones affecting U.S. wheat and Asian rice production are the geographies to watch. The 97% persistence probability through early spring 2027 extends that risk horizon well past the event's climatological peak, meaning post-peak food price effects and supply chain disruption could materialize even as Pacific temperatures begin to cool.
