Global Recorded Music Revenue Projected to Reach $121 Billion by 2033, MIDiA Report Says
Global recorded music revenues will grow 62.9% to reach $121.1 billion by 2033, up from $74.3 billion in 2025, according to MIDiA's Global Music Forecast 2026-2033 report, released on August 13 (Billboard).
The forecast places music retail revenues — what consumers spend across all formats and platforms — at $62.7 billion by 2033, with trade revenue, the wholesale slice that labels and distributors collect, growing 57.2% over the same period. MIDiA also projects that by 2032, global recorded music revenues will reach $109.8 billion in retail terms (MIDiA Research).
Streaming remains the engine, but the report identifies a shifting mix of revenue sources beyond the standard subscription model. Expanded rights — income from areas like branding and merchandise — are projected to become the second-fastest-growing source of recorded music revenue after streaming. MIDiA also puts the value of the fan economy, which it defines as including physical music sales, streaming revenue from social, fitness and gaming platforms, and those expanded rights, at $18.5 billion by 2033.
Tatiana Cirisano, MIDiA's vice president of music strategy, said in a statement that the industry's next growth phase will come from "pulling new levers both within and beyond the subscription model" (Billboard). One of those levers is pricing. MIDiA projects that subscription pricing will evolve in the coming years, eventually returning average revenue per user — ARPU, the metric that divides total subscription income by the number of paying listeners — to growth.
That projection stands against a current headwind. Spotify recently forecast flat ARPU for its third quarter compared to the same period in 2025, a signal that price increases have not yet offset the dilution from cheaper plans in emerging markets.
The broader trajectory MIDiA outlines is consistent with, though more granular than, a separate forecast from Goldman Sachs. The bank's "Music in the Air" report, published in August 2025, projects the global music market could reach approximately $200 billion by 2035 — a figure that encompasses the entire industry, including live music, not just recorded revenue (Goldman Sachs).
For context, MIDiA reported that global recorded music revenues grew 9.4% in 2025 to reach $39.5 billion, following $36.2 billion in 2024, a 6.5% year-on-year increase (MIDiA Research). The 2025 figure reflects trade revenue — the wholesale measure — while the $121.1 billion 2033 projection is in retail terms, meaning it captures the full consumer spend before label and distributor deductions.
What makes the forecast notable is where it expects growth to come from. The subscription model built the streaming era, but ARPU has been a stubborn metric: prices rise, then cheaper regional plans pull the average back down. MIDiA's bet is that the next decade's growth gets distributed across more surface area — merchandise and branding folded into recorded music income, gaming and fitness platforms treated as streaming sources, and physical formats still holding a place in the mix. For fans, that means the ways artists earn from their attention are set to multiply well beyond the monthly subscription fee.
