Europe Talks to the Taliban: The Push to Return Afghan Refugees
Fifteen European ambassadors met a Taliban delegation in Brussels on June 23, 2026, with the main agenda item reportedly being the possible return of Afghan refugees to Afghanistan. It was the first time Taliban officials held such talks with European governments in the EU capital. Courthouse News The meeting's existence drew outcry from rights advocates, though its practical purpose was narrower than broad normalisation — the diplomatic term for formally accepting a government's legitimacy. European governments want to deport Afghans they consider dangerous, and for that they need a working channel to Taliban authorities. Al Jazeera
The Brussels talks did not emerge in a vacuum. In 2024, Germany lifted a de facto ban on deporting Afghans to Kabul, becoming the first EU member state to take that step. Germany was also the first EU country to work with Taliban-appointed diplomats at Afghan missions in Berlin and Bonn. Other member states have since followed with varying degrees of engagement. Al Jazeera
The scale of the population involved is substantial. About half a million Afghans have applied for asylum — protection granted to people fleeing persecution — in the EU since the Taliban took power in August 2021, according to the EU Agency for Asylum. That figure follows an initial evacuation of roughly 4,500 Afghan staff and family members: interpreters, security guards, and employees of the EU's police mission, pulled out after the fall of Kabul. Al Jazeera
On the asylum-application side, Afghans lodged the most applications in EU+ countries in May 2026, with around 5,600 filed, of which 35 percent were repeated in the same EU+ country. That monthly figure represents a 12-percent decrease compared with the previous period. On an annual basis, however, EUAA analysis recorded a 33-percent increase in Afghan asylum applications in the EU+. EUAA The EUAA also published Country Guidance: Afghanistan in June 2026, intended to assist asylum decision-makers and foster convergence across member states. Notably, its guidance states that Afghan women may qualify for refugee status solely based on nationality and gender. EUAA
The tension between these two tracks — engagement for returns and asylum protection — is visible at the national level. Abdul Wali, an Afghan refugee in the Netherlands, received a special coin and certificate from the Dutch government in 2023 for his services in Afghanistan. He had arrived in November 2021 after Dutch politicians and military personnel lobbied for his evacuation, following Taliban threats tied to his work for the Dutch NGO Cordaid and his assistance to an interpreter associated with the Netherlands military. Yet Afghan refugees in the Netherlands who were granted refugee status now hold only temporary residency permits after the Dutch government changed the law, leaving them in legal limbo. Al Jazeera
Beyond Europe's borders, returns to Afghanistan are already proceeding at significant volume. So far in 2026, over 232,500 Afghans have returned, including 146,206 from Pakistan and 86,253 from Iran, according to UNHCR's Operational Data Portal. UNHCR Since September 2023, more than 4 million Afghans have returned from Iran and Pakistan combined, with over 1.5 million returning in 2025 alone. Chatham House At the end of 2025, UNHCR's Global Trends report counted about 3.7 million Afghan refugees or others in need of international protection, a 36-percent decrease from the prior year. UNHCR
Europe itself hosted more than 20 million forcibly displaced and stateless people by the end of 2025, including 5.2 million refugees, according to UNHCR. UNHCR In Iran, UNHCR estimated roughly 1.65 million forcibly displaced people of varying documentation statuses reside in the country in 2026, including some 770,000 refugees. UNHCR The broader regional picture is one of contraction in recognised refugee populations alongside continued displacement pressure.
The policy framework attempting to manage these flows is in transition. The EU Pact on Migration and Asylum, as outlined by IOM and UNHCR, aims to make EU asylum systems more efficient and consistent, reducing backlogs through a structured framework for member-state cooperation. IOM/UNHCR The European Commission adopted its Union Plan on resettlement for 2026-2027 on 18 December 2025. European Commission EU countries have carried out more than 53,000 humanitarian admissions, mostly of Afghans at risk. European Commission In 2025, the EU pursued a "whole-of-route" approach to migration management through coordination with various stakeholders. EUAA
The broader context here is a Europe where the political centre of gravity on asylum has shifted rightward, compressing the political space for humanitarian protection even as the legal infrastructure for it remains formally intact. The European Parliament's own research service noted that as of early May 2026, neither the Middle East conflict nor the civil war in Sudan had triggered a higher influx of asylum applicants in Europe — meaning the pressure driving policy is as much political as it is demographic. European Parliament A European government can simultaneously maintain a humanitarian admission programme for Afghans at risk and send ambassadors to discuss returns with the Taliban. The Dutch case crystallises the contradiction: a state that decorated Abdul Wali for his service then converted his refugee status into temporary residency. Whether the EU's structured asylum framework can hold that tension without one track ultimately subsuming the other is the question that will shape Afghan displacement policy through the remainder of the decade.
