Gasoline Crack Spreads to Stay High Through 2026, EIA Says — Even as Pump Prices Fall
The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects gasoline crack spreads to remain elevated through the end of 2026, sustaining relatively high crude oil inputs to refineries even as the agency forecasts lower retail gasoline prices in 2026 and 2027. The projection, published in the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for petroleum products, places the refining margin outlook at the center of the agency's supply-side framework for the coming quarters.
As of August 18, 2026, the EIA's Today in Energy daily prices page reported the U.S. average regular gasoline retail price at $4.09 per gallon. The same source reports a U.S. average regular gasoline crack spread of $15.90 per barrel.
A crack spread measures the price difference between finished petroleum products (like gasoline) and the crude oil they're made from. Think of it as the refiner's gross margin per barrel — the gap between what crude costs them and what they can sell the refined product for. It's the primary indicator of relative product value and refining economics.
The EIA expects 2026 gasoline crack spreads to come in higher than the previous two years, according to a Today in Energy analysis published January 20, 2026. That same analysis projects lower U.S. gasoline prices for 2026 and 2027, reflecting the agency's view that declining crude input costs will more than offset the elevated refining margins at the pump.
The STEO's petroleum product projections include retail gasoline price estimates of $3.31, $3.10, and $3.78 per gallon across its forecast horizon, alongside the expectation of high crack spreads. The gap between these annual averages and the current $4.09 spot reading implies a meaningful drawdown in pump prices over the forecast window, even as the refining-margin component of the barrel stays wide.
Crack spreads vary by product and shift with seasonal demand patterns and broader market conditions, as the EIA notes in its "What Drives Petroleum Product Prices" resource. Gasoline cracks typically widen heading into the summer driving season and compress during the quieter spring and fall periods. The agency's expectation that spreads will hold above 2024–2025 levels through end-2026 suggests structural support for refining throughput rather than a purely seasonal bump.
High crack spreads incentivize refiners to maximize crude runs, pushing utilization rates higher. The EIA explicitly ties the elevated spread forecast to relatively high crude oil inputs to refineries, meaning the agency's supply model expects refiners to respond to margin signals by processing more barrels. That dynamic, if it plays out as projected, would increase product availability and could contribute to the downward pressure on retail prices embedded in the STEO forecast.
The broader context here is the apparent paradox between widening crack spreads and falling retail prices. Crack spreads are a wholesale-level margin: the gap between what a refiner pays for crude and what it receives for the refined product. Retail prices incorporate that wholesale cost but also reflect distribution, marketing, taxes, and competitive dynamics at the terminal and station level. If crude prices decline sufficiently, the pump price can fall even while the refining margin as a per-barrel figure stays high. The EIA's forecast appears to rely on exactly that mechanism: lower crude input costs compress the retail price even as the crack-spread component of the barrel remains elevated relative to recent history.
For refiners, the outlook implies sustained cash margin generation through 2026, assuming the EIA's spread projections hold. For consumers, the same forecast points to relief at the pump from current levels, with annual average gasoline prices projected well below the August 2026 spot price. Whether the crack-spread forecast proves durable depends on crude supply dynamics, refinery utilization, and product demand, all of which the EIA acknowledges are subject to seasonal and market-condition variability.
The $15.90-per-barrel spot crack spread reported in the EIA's daily prices data provides a current benchmark against which the agency's forward projections can be assessed. A sustained spread at or above that level would be consistent with the STEO's expectation of high crude inputs to refineries through the forecast horizon.
