Adelaide Crows Walk the Wildcard Tightrope on Eve of AFL Finals
The Adelaide Crows could become the first minor premier in AFL history to exit the finals in straight sets — and the first side ever to lose a Wildcard Final — depending on how results fall in the closing round of the 2026 home-and-away season ABC News.
Adelaide claimed the minor premiership in 2025 and returned to September for the first time since 2017, a breakthrough that ended years in the wilderness under coach Matthew Nicks — the first man in Crows history to survive three full seasons without finals Adelaide Crows. The club backed Nicks with a contract extension through to the end of 2027 in December 2025 ABC News. Now, 12 months on from that return to the top of the ladder, the Crows need to win their final minor-round match against GWS on Saturday night and rely on other results to jump back into the top six and avoid the new Wildcard round entirely Adelaide Crows.
The stakes are shaped by the AFL's biggest finals shake-up in 25 years. From 2026, a Wildcard Finals Round replaces the traditional pre-finals bye, with seventh playing tenth and eighth playing ninth in two sudden-death elimination matches AFL.com.au. The wildcards are played across what used to be a rest weekend, adding an extra week of finals and a fresh layer of peril for any top side that slides.
The numbers frame how unusual Adelaide's position is. Since the AFL expanded to 18 teams, a 15-win season has guaranteed a top-six finish in 11 of 13 full-length seasons and has only twice locked a side into an away elimination final ABC News. Only 54 per cent of minor premiers in the AFL era have won a flag within three years of finishing first ABC News.
The noise around the club has been loud. Head of Football Adam Kelly told SA Grandstand about a month before the finals that the team's performances were being exaggerated, adding that "Adelaide is a very noisy place" ABC News. Four-time Showdown Medallist Josh Francou set the bar bluntly: anything less than a preliminary final — the second-last weekend of the season — would make 2026 a failed campaign for the Crows ABC News. Club president John Olsen told ABC Sport earlier in the year that Adelaide was close to ending a premiership drought approaching 30 years ABC News.
For Adelaide, the equation is simple in principle and fraught in practice. Beat GWS, hope results elsewhere fall the right way, and the Crows skip the wildcard altogether. Slip, and they carry the weight of history they would rather not make.
