One Nation's Migration Cap: A Number That Grows Under Scrutiny
One Nation MP David Farley conceded on ABC's Insiders on 23 August 2026 that his party's net overseas migration target is "not too different" to Labor's, despite One Nation's official policy listing a hard visa cap of 130,000 a year.
The admission is awkward for a party that built its brand on slashing migration. It is also the second time Farley has wandered into this territory — he was previously counselled by One Nation leader Pauline Hanson over an earlier similar claim about immigration.
On Insiders, Farley tried to separate migration "in its true form" from the temporary workers he says Australia cannot do without. Skilled workers and backpackers, he argued, are critical to keeping Australia fed and should be counted separately from the headline migration number.
Here is the arithmetic. Farley said One Nation's net overseas migration (NOM) target remained 130,000, but that figure excludes skilled workers, backpackers, and Pacific and Timor-Leste labour through the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) scheme. He expects a "minimum" of 100,000 additional people on top of that 130,000, including about 40,000 PALM workers and 70,000 skilled workers such as aged care nurses. That puts the real figure at roughly 230,000 a year once the carve-outs are added back in.
NOM, as defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, is the net difference between people entering and leaving the country over a period, excluding short-term visitors like tourists. It includes Australians moving abroad and returning. It differs from permanent migration, which measures longer-term visas offered for skilled workers and family members. Think of it like a household budget: NOM is everything flowing in and out of the front door, while permanent migration is just the long-term leases you sign.
For context, the government forecasts NOM to drop to 245,000 in 2026-27 and 225,000 in 2027-28. NOM was forecast to fall to 295,000 last financial year but reached 301,000. There are 185,000 permanent migration places for 2026-27. NOM surged after the pandemic — during which it fell below zero — and has begun returning to more typical levels in recent quarters.
The gap between One Nation's 230,000 effective figure and Labor's forecast 245,000 is roughly 15,000. That is what Farley meant by "not too different."
The party's internal line on the 130,000 figure has shifted before. One Nation's policy lists it as a hard visa cap, which would likely produce a negative NOM. Barnaby Joyce, the former Nationals MP who defected to One Nation in December 2025, has suggested the 130,000 was instead a target for NOM. An AAP report from April 2026 quoted Farley saying the 130,000 target was "the right one," only noting that current migration levels differed. Michelle Grattan reported in The Conversation on 18 August that Farley described the target as more complex than the official figure, estimating about 40,000 more "rotating" workers would be needed. The 23 August Insiders appearance has now inflated that adjustment to at least 100,000.
The distinction between the headline figure and the carve-outs matters because skilled workers, backpackers and PALM labour are precisely the categories that feed into NOM as currently defined by the ABS. You cannot simply wish them out of the calculation.
The broader context here is that migration policy is live across the parliament. Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke cancelled a planned National Press Club appearance in August 2026 over internal unrest on the final migration policy. The Coalition has declined to provide an exact NOM figure, with Opposition Leader Angus Taylor indicating it will be "well below 200,000." One Nation, by Farley's own arithmetic, is now floating a number above the Coalition's stated range and within cooee of Labor's forecast.
The political problem is straightforward. A party campaigning on a 130,000 hard cap that, in practice, becomes 230,000 once the exclusions are stacked up, is selling a headline that does not survive a single follow-up question. Farley's framing of skilled workers and PALM labour as somehow outside migration "in its true form" is a rhetorical move, not a statistical one. The ABS counts them. The budget counts them. The housing and infrastructure projections count them. If One Nation wants to run a migration policy, it is running one at roughly 230,000 — and the party's leader has already counselled her own MP for saying as much.
Whether Hanson disciplines Farley again, or whether the party formally updates its policy to reflect the effective figure, is the question that now sits with One Nation. The crossbench and the major parties will be watching to see which number One Nation takes to the next election.
