Poll: More voters think National was wrong to keep Luxon than right

An RNZ-Reid Research poll has found 45.4% of respondents believe National's MPs made the wrong call in keeping Christopher Luxon as leader, while 36.8% said it was the right decision and 17.8% were unsure.

The poll was conducted through online interviews with 1,000 people between 14 and 21 August 2026. It has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% at a 95% confidence level — meaning we can be 95% sure the true result falls within 3.1 percentage points of these figures. (RNZ)

The results come just under two weeks after Luxon survived a leadership challenge from within his own team. Luxon had called an "urgent in-person" caucus meeting in Wellington on Wednesday 13 August to deal with growing speculation about his leadership, refusing to speak to reporters as he arrived at Wellington Airport. He had previously put his leadership to a confidence vote among his MPs in April 2026, and was asked on the Saturday before the August meeting whether that earlier vote had resulted in a caucus split of 27 votes. (RNZ, 11 August) (RNZ, 11 August) (RNZ, 11 August)

After the failed challenge, Luxon sacked Chris Penk from Cabinet, saying Penk had acted alone in challenging for the prime ministership. Sources within and close to the National Party linked Education Minister Erica Stanford to the leadership bid. Stanford denied involvement but stayed silent when repeatedly asked whether she had confidence in Luxon before the caucus meeting. Chris Bishop and Nicola Willis, both thought to be positioning themselves in case the leadership became vacant, declared loyalty to Luxon before and after the meeting. (RNZ)

The poll's breakdown by party affiliation tells a more layered story than the headline figure. Among people who identified as National supporters, 78% backed Luxon continuing as leader and only 11.5% disagreed. ACT voters were more divided: 54.2% supported keeping Luxon, while 28.7% opposed it. New Zealand First voters tilted the other way, with 52.4% saying National MPs made the wrong decision and 31.6% backing them.

Opposition voters were unsurprisingly hostile. Labour supporters opposed the decision at 64.6%, and Green supporters at 69.8%.

Among respondents who wanted Luxon gone, the preferred replacement field was split. Erica Stanford led at 16.6%, narrowly ahead of Chris Bishop on 15.2%. Nicola Willis polled 9%, followed by Chris Penk on 7.6%. The largest single category was "none of the above" at 39.6%, with a further 13.3% saying they did not know.

Looking at what these numbers mean for the government, the National base remains broadly behind Luxon. A 78% endorsement from party supporters is a firm figure, and it is the number the Prime Minister's office will point to. But the coalition partners tell a different story. The ACT result, with nearly three in ten of its voters opposing Luxon's retention, signals some erosion on the centre-right flank. The New Zealand First result is starker: a majority of Peters's voters think National should have moved Luxon on.

For a three-party government under MMP, that matters. Under our voting system, parties form coalitions to govern, and voters who backed a smaller coalition partner can drift away from the lead party if they lose confidence in its leader — either to other parties on the flanks or by staying home on election day. The "none of the above" figure among those wanting a replacement is also worth noting. It suggests public appetite for change does not translate into a clear consensus successor, which may partly explain why the challenge failed despite the broader discontent reflected in the headline numbers.

Stanford's lead as preferred replacement, narrow as it is, is notable given her refusal to express confidence in Luxon before the caucus meeting. Bishop's close second, combined with his declared loyalty both before and after the vote, positions him as the obvious continuity candidate if Luxon's position comes under pressure again. Willis, at 9%, trails both despite her seniority.

The broader context here is a Prime Minister who has now faced two leadership tests within six months: the April confidence vote and the August challenge. Luxon has survived both. Whether he can stabilise the public perception captured in this poll, where a plurality of voters think his MPs made the wrong call, is the question the next quarter of polling will answer.