TOP's Threshold Problem: Why Labour Wants the Opportunities Party to Either Win Big or Not at All
Labour's campaign chair Kieran McAnulty has told a Wellington election summit that the Opportunities Party needs to either clear five percent or score zero for Labour to have a realistic shot at forming government in November.
McAnulty's remarks, delivered at the Politik Election Summit 2026: Navigating a Disrupted Electorate on Wednesday, laid out the strategic calculation now shaping Labour's campaign. Under MMP, a party must reach five percent of the party vote to enter Parliament. If TOP polls above that threshold, it wins seats and brings them to a potential left-leaning coalition. If it falls short, its votes are redistributed among the parties that do clear five percent, using a formula called Sainte-Laguë that allocates seats proportionally. What Labour cannot afford, in McAnulty's view, is the zone in between: TOP sitting on three or four percent, drawing votes away from the left without winning any seats. (RNZ)
The summit, held a little more than two months out from the election, brought together campaign chairs, pollsters and strategists across the political spectrum for a rare on-the-record dissection of the electoral landscape.
Tim Hurdle, a former National senior adviser, presented Freshwater polling showing National on a downward trajectory after a post-election lift, the rise of New Zealand First, and what he described as a "redemption arc" for Labour. Hurdle said TOP's rising vote was coming "a bit" out of Labour, though the picture is more complex than a single-direction transfer. (RNZ)
Talbot Mills Research pollster Talbot offered a more detailed read. On his numbers, TOP holds the balance of power — meaning neither the left nor the right bloc can form government without them. He said the left bloc was dominant through 2025, but the centre-right has overtaken it in 2026, a shift driven overwhelmingly by Winston Peters' rise rather than by strength in the national vote for the governing parties. Talbot also predicted TOP would reach the threshold, with its support drawn "pretty equally off the left and right blocks". (RNZ)
The polling backdrop gives these strategic arguments weight. A Curia/TPU survey published earlier in August was the first major poll to put TOP above the threshold, with support up 2.8 points to 6.1% (The Spinoff). The latest Roy Morgan poll put TOP on 6%, which if replicated on election day would secure seven seats in Parliament (RNZ Facebook). TOP itself has said it needs more time to reach five percent consistently, while noting some polls already have the party above that mark (TOP Facebook).
The divergence between McAnulty and Talbot on where TOP's vote is coming from is worth noting. McAnulty's framing implies TOP's vote is largely a leakage from the left, hence his preference for an all-or-nothing outcome. Talbot's data suggests the transfer is more evenly spread across both blocs, which would complicate the assumption that a strong TOP result automatically benefits the left.
McAnulty also said he believed Labour had a genuine opportunity to make the 2026 election the first time New Zealand had a one-term government under MMP (RNZ). That is a high bar. MMP has produced three-term governments and two-term governments, but no single-term government since the system was adopted in 1996.
National's campaign chair Simeon Brown, also speaking at the summit, held to the party's established messaging: "fixing the basics and building the future", paired with an attack on Labour over "nine new taxes". (RNZ)
The summit's keynote speaker was Australian lobbyist and pollster Kosmos Samara, who discussed the rise of One Nation in Australian politics. Samara said One Nation was tapping into voters' concerns about the cost of living, particularly among Generation X — those born between 1965 and 1980. He said conservative Australian parties losing votes to One Nation were wrong to think immigration was the key driver, calling it "a problem that doesn't exist". (RNZ)
The cross-Tasman comparison carries obvious weight for New Zealand strategists. If cost-of-living pressure among mid-life voters is the engine of right-wing populist support in Australia, the question for this campaign is whether NZ First's resurgence — the dominant trend in Talbot's data — follows a similar pattern or reflects something specific to the local political cycle.
A separate event, the South Island Election Conference 2026 hosted by Business Canterbury, will feature a Leaders' Address on infrastructure by Chris Bishop and McAnulty. That conference is distinct from the Wellington summit. (Business Canterbury)
What is clear from the summit's various presentations is that TOP's trajectory has become the single most consequential variable in the election arithmetic. Whether the party clears the threshold, falls short entirely, or lands in the wasted-vote zone will shape not just the composition of the next Parliament but the strategic logic of every major party's campaign over the final stretch. The pollsters disagree on the source of TOP's support and the campaign chairs disagree on the desirability of its success. Two months out, that disagreement is the story.
