NVIDIA Earnings, Inflation Data, and Oil Forecasts All Land Today: Here's What to Watch
NVIDIA reports its second-quarter fiscal 2027 financial results today, August 26, 2026, at 2 p.m. PT (5 p.m. ET). The call, announced July 29, NVIDIA News, follows a first quarter in which the company posted record revenue of $81.6 billion, up 85% year over year, and record Data Center revenue of $75.2 billion. NVIDIA Investor Relations
Also today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases its latest PCE Price Index reading. PCE, or Personal Consumption Expenditures, is a measure of how much prices are rising across the economy. The BEA publishes a "core" version that strips out food and energy costs, which tend to bounce around for reasons unrelated to underlying inflation. The Federal Reserve watches core PCE more closely than any other inflation gauge. BEA
The last two core PCE readings showed a gradual cooling: 3.4% year over year in May's report (released June 25), then 3.3% in June's report (released July 30). BEA BEA If today's figure comes in at or below 3.3%, that would be a third straight data point showing inflation easing — a direction the Fed wants to see, though at 3.3% core PCE remains well above the Fed's 2% target.
The convergence is not new. Two years ago, on August 26, 2024, the same three threads — NVIDIA earnings, PCE data, and oil prices — landed in the same week. The Dow hit a record that day, and crude was in focus. WSJ The same three converge again today.
On the commodity side, the range of oil price forecasts is unusually wide. Barclays, in a June 26, 2026 note, cut its Brent crude forecast to $96 per barrel for 2026 and $85 for 2027, down from prior calls of $100 and $88. Reuters The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects Brent averaging around $85 per barrel in Q3 2026. EIA A Reuters survey of 34 economists and analysts, published January 5, 2026, landed at a consensus of $61.27 per barrel for 2026. Reuters
The spread between Barclays' $96 and the Reuters poll's $61.27 is not a rounding error. It reflects a genuine disagreement about supply and demand dynamics that market participants will need to resolve through incoming data.
The broader context here matters. Core inflation at 3.3% leaves the Fed in a difficult position — inflation is cooling but still above target, which means interest rates likely stay restrictive. The January 2026 Personal Income and Outlays report showed personal income rising $113.8 billion, or 0.4% monthly, BEA, suggesting household income growth is still strong enough to support consumer spending. NVIDIA's Data Center revenue, if sustained near the $75.2 billion pace from Q1, would signal that the massive spending cycle on AI infrastructure continues to expand, and that any talk of demand slowing from the largest cloud-computing customers has not yet shown up in NVIDIA's sales.
The earnings call also follows NVIDIA's 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, held June 24, 2026 at 9:00 a.m. PT. NVIDIA Investor Relations
For traders, the sequence of today's events is the story. The PCE data lands at 8:30 a.m. ET. If it prints at or below 3.3%, the bond market's front end — the shortest-dated Treasury yields, which are most sensitive to Fed rate expectations — would likely price in a higher chance of rate cuts. An upside surprise would do the opposite. Then NVIDIA reports after the stock market closes, testing whether AI-driven earnings growth can hold up in an environment where borrowing costs remain high.
Oil adds a third variable. Energy-sensitive sectors and inflation expectations respond to crude prices, and with forecasts ranging from $61 to $96 per barrel, positions are fragile. Think of it as three dials being turned at once: inflation data, AI spending, and oil. If PCE confirms disinflation and NVIDIA confirms AI spending resilience, oil becomes the swing factor that determines where inflation expectations go next.
None of this is predictive. What is verifiable is the calendar: NVIDIA reports today, PCE releases today, and oil forecasts disagree by roughly $35 per barrel. How those three interact will set the tone for markets through the back half of August.
